Amid a relatively calm beginning to the 2025 hurricane season, AccuWeather’s tropical experts are closely monitoring an area near the Southeast coast that could affect Fourth of July weekend plans in the region. The only named storm in the Atlantic basin so far is Andrea, which dissipated in less than 24 hours earlier this week. If a new tropical storm forms near the Southeast coast in early July, it would be named Barry.
Before any potential tropical development near the Southeast coast, AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting thunderstorms over the next week. “Following a peak in heat over the interior Southeast, we expect a transition to a pattern favoring increased showers and thunderstorms in early July,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. While most of the Southeast is currently free of drought, parts of the Florida Peninsula will receive much-needed rain in the coming days.
AccuWeather experts caution that a dip in the jet stream lingering near the Gulf or southwestern Atlantic could lead to gradual tropical development. “The Gulf and Atlantic off the Southeast coast are typical early formation areas in July,” explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. “A cold front moving off the coast next week could trigger development in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast.”
Due to this possibility, AccuWeather has identified a low chance of tropical development in this region from July 4 to 7. The outlooked area is expected to have low wind shear, favorable ocean temperatures, and heavy rainfall as the primary impact if a storm forms. Tropical downpours could drop over an inch of rain in a short period, potentially causing localized flooding and waterspouts near the coast.
While the Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet, the Eastern Pacific has seen increased activity, with five named storms, including two hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate continued quiet conditions in the Atlantic, with the possibility of a tropical rainstorm affecting southern Mexico but staying offshore.
In summary, the hurricane season shows signs of potential development near the Southeast coast, while the rest of the tropics remain relatively calm.
In the Eastern Pacific, the only named storm currently is Flossie. Meanwhile, except for a potential development area near the Southeast U.S. coast, the rest of the Atlantic basin, spanning from the Caribbean to the central and northern Atlantic, is anticipated to remain calm for the first 10 days of July. This news is sure to please Caribbean vacationers. AccuWeather.com forecasts that frequent occurrences of Saharan dust moving from Africa, along with wind shear, will hinder tropical storm formation and development in the region, as noted by DaSilva. Despite the slow start to the season, AccuWeather’s tropical experts, led by DaSilva, are still predicting an active season, with 13-18 named storms expected to form through the fall months. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, while the Eastern Pacific season extends from May 15 to Nov. 30. For advanced safety features and an ad-free experience, consider subscribing to AccuWeather Premium+ on the app. This subscription unlocks hyperlocal severe weather alerts provided by expert meteorologists who work around the clock to monitor and assess potential risks, ensuring the safety of you and your loved ones.
