A dedicated scientist is pushing the boundaries in the fight against climate change. Recent reports indicate that if the world experiences 18 consecutive months at or above the 1.5-degree limit, it will be “virtually certain” that the Paris Agreement has been breached. Emanuele Bevacqua, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Centre in Germany, led a study using real-world climate data and modeling, uncovering that historical warming trends show the first single year to breach a temperature threshold also fell within the initial 20-year period of reaching that threshold.
The findings suggest that if current trends persist, it is highly likely that by 2024, we will see the first 20-year period of 1.5-degree warming. Both research papers emphasize the importance of immediate and decisive climate action to reduce the risk of breaching the Paris Agreement goals in the coming years and decades. Richard Allen, a climate science professor at the University of Reading, who was not part of the studies, emphasized the need to intensify efforts to avoid surpassing the even more hazardous 2-degree Celsius threshold by swiftly and significantly cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Some experts, however, are less optimistic. Noted climate scientist James Hansen, one of the early voices raising alarm about climate change, declared last year that the 1.5-degree goal was essentially unattainable. Hansen recently co-authored a paper underscoring that global warming is accelerating faster than anticipated, partly due to measures taken to curb shipping pollution. While these regulations aim to address human health risks associated with pollution, they also inadvertently contribute to deflecting sunlight away from the Earth, exacerbating global heating.
Hansen warned that if current trends continue, global temperatures are likely to exceed 2 degrees within the next few decades, leading to disastrous outcomes such as accelerated ice sheet melting and rising sea levels. While the newly published research paints a bleak picture, Daniela Schmidt, a professor of Earth sciences at the University of Bristol, cautioned against fixating solely on the 1.5-degree target. Schmidt emphasized that becoming overly focused on this specific threshold may hinder collective efforts in combating climate change if it is surpassed.
Highlighting the importance of ambition, Schmidt stressed that maintaining the current trajectory will result in warming of around 3 degrees, with catastrophic and potentially irreversible consequences for ecosystems and human populations. It is crucial to take meaningful action now to avert the worst impacts of climate change. For more news and updates, visit CNN.com and sign up for CNN newsletters.
