As the men’s college basketball regular season nears its end, the projected March Madness bracket is experiencing significant shifts. Only a few teams are vying for a No. 1 seed, leading to adjustments at the top of the bracket that could alter the favorites for the title. The latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology shows most movement occurring in the middle seed lines and bubble teams. Teams in the 7-10 range are poised for intriguing matchups in the opening round, with some gaining momentum while others falter heading into March. At the bottom of the bracket, there have been notable changes in the teams qualifying for the First Four in Dayton, Ohio.
With conference tournaments and automatic bids soon to be finalized, here are the teams rising or falling in the projected bracket:
**Rising Teams**:
*Tennessee*
Current projected seed: No. 1 (West)
Tennessee secures a top seed spot following a thrilling game-winning 3-pointer by Jahmai Mashack against Alabama, marking their fourth consecutive victory and second Quad 1 win in a week. Despite being fourth in the SEC, the Volunteers now boast 10 Quad 1 wins, tying them with Alabama and Michigan State for the second-most in the country. While other SEC contenders may challenge for a top seed, Tennessee’s strong finish could solidify their position atop the bracket.
*Vanderbilt*
Current projected seed: No. 7 (East)
Vanderbilt’s recent success includes three straight wins against ranked opponents before a setback to Arkansas on Tuesday. Having climbed from a No. 10 seed less than two weeks ago, Vanderbilt has improved to a 5-8 record in Quad 1 games and has a chance to bolster it further against Georgia in their regular-season finale.
*Oregon*
Current projected seed: No. 7 (West)
Oregon has found its rhythm with five consecutive wins after a mid-season slump that saw them lose five straight. The Ducks have secured two Quad 1 victories during this streak, giving them eight wins in the category, tied for second-most in the Big Ten. With notable wins over teams like Texas A&M, Alabama, and Wisconsin, Oregon could elevate their seeding with a strong showing in the Big Ten tournament.
*San Diego State*
Current projected seed: No. 10 (Midwest)
San Diego State, last year’s runner-up, is on track to make the tournament for the fourth straight year. With wins over Mountain West leader New Mexico and five victories in their last six games, the Aztecs have moved out of First Four territory from last week. A favorable end to the regular season and a couple of conference tournament wins could solidify San Diego State’s position in the bracket.
*Georgia*
Current projected seed: No. 11 (West)
Georgia’s impressive week, including two Quad 1 wins (especially a significant victory over Florida), has propelled the Bulldogs back into the projected field after being
Boise State finds itself in a critical position as it heads into the upcoming matchup against Vanderbilt on Saturday. With their current projected seed standing at No. 11 in the South region, the Broncos have made a notable surge in the 2025 season, climbing from being largely overlooked to potentially securing a spot in the First Four. Boise State’s impressive five-game winning streak includes victories against strong opponents like New Mexico and Utah State. The team’s final regular-season game against Colorado State will be crucial in solidifying their status, as a win against the Rams and a strong performance in the Mountain West tournament will further bolster their chances of making a significant impact in the postseason.
Alabama, once a consistent No. 1 seed projection, has recently faced setbacks, leading to a slight drop to a projected No. 2 seed in the West region. The Crimson Tide have encountered challenges during a tough stretch of games, including a notable loss to Tennessee among three defeats in their last five outings. While currently placed as a No. 2 seed, Alabama has historically performed well in the West region, as evidenced by their Final Four appearance last year. The upcoming games against Florida and Auburn offer the team an opportunity to reclaim their position as a top seed and showcase their strength heading into the postseason.
Mississippi’s seeding has seen a decline to No. 9 in the Midwest region following a series of losses after initially being ranked as high as a No. 5 seed. The Rebels managed to bounce back with a crucial home victory against Oklahoma but will face tough matchups against Tennessee and Florida in the coming week. The outcome of these games will play a significant role in determining Ole Miss’ seeding and potential participation in the SEC tournament.
Creighton, previously on a strong run in Big East play, has encountered a rough patch with a 3-3 record in their last six games. Despite a solid start, the Bluejays have struggled to secure impactful wins to enhance their tournament resume. Their upcoming game against Butler will be pivotal in determining their positioning for the Big East tournament and subsequent seeding in the NCAA bracket.
Baylor’s position as a No. 10 seed in the East region comes after a critical victory against TCU that helped them avoid a potentially precarious bubble situation. Prior losses to competitive teams like Houston, Texas Tech, and Arizona, as well as unexpected defeats against Colorado and Cincinnati, had put Baylor’s tournament hopes in jeopardy. The team will need to maintain their momentum to secure a more favorable seed in the upcoming tournament.
Nebraska, once showing promise of moving away from the bubble, has faced setbacks with several disappointing losses that have pushed them out of the projected field. Defeats to Penn State and Minnesota, particularly the latter in a crushing fashion, have highlighted the team’s struggles and jeopardized their chances of impressing the selection committee. With a NET ranking of 57, Nebraska faces an uphill battle to prove their worthiness for an NCAA tournament berth.
Wake Forest’s tournament aspirations
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