By Maya Gebeily, Suleiman Al-Khalidi, Ahmed Rasheed, and Timour Azhari
Syrian military conscript Farhan al-Khouli, 23, was disheartened by his poorly compensated and understaffed post near rebel-held Idlib. Struggling with only three soldiers instead of the required nine, some had resorted to bribery to avoid service, he explained. Of the two conscripts present, one was deemed unfit for duty by superiors.
The Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had long remained behind the frontlines, maintaining a stalemate in Syria’s civil war. However, on November 27, Khouli received a call from his commanding officer, instructing him to confront an approaching rebel convoy. Instead, he made the decision to abandon his post, shedding his uniform and weapon as he fled.
Numerous soldiers followed suit, leaving their positions as the rebels advanced towards Damascus. The sudden collapse of Assad’s army, which had relied heavily on foreign allies and faced internal corruption, led to the rebels seizing control of the capital and bringing an end to the conflict that had spanned over a decade.
Sources within the Syrian army, including deserters, officers, and militia commanders, revealed the extent of the army’s deterioration. The reliance on foreign support, particularly from Iran, had weakened the military, a situation exacerbated by the departure of key advisors following Israeli airstrikes and internal conflicts in neighboring Lebanon.
With the departure of Iranian and Hezbollah advisors, the Syrian army struggled to maintain operational effectiveness, especially in key areas like Aleppo. In contrast, rebel forces in the northwest, despite being numerically inferior on paper, had unified under a single operations command and were poised for significant gains.
According to an International Crisis Group report following the fall of Aleppo, armed groups and units coordinated their actions in battle. Reuters attempted to reach a current representative of the armed forces but was unsuccessful. The most powerful figure in Syria, HTS chief Ahmad al-Sharaa, stated that he would dissolve Syria’s security forces. Iran’s mission to the United Nations, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah did not respond to requests for comment.
As Aleppo faced an attack in late November, Syrian army units were not provided with a clear plan but were instructed to figure it out themselves or retreat to the strategic city of Homs for regrouping, as per two Syrian security sources. Aleppo fell with minimal resistance on Nov. 29, merely two days after the offensive commenced, leaving the military in a state of shock, according to three senior Syrian officers.
The Syrian army was reported to be severely lacking in cohesion, with multiple undermanned units due to officers accepting bribes to excuse soldiers from duty or instructing soldiers to go home while collecting their salaries themselves. The army, with 130,000 personnel in 2020 according to the IISS’ Military Balance report, had been significantly depleted by the prolonged civil war, evolving into an irregularly structured, militia-style organization focused on internal security.
As the regime neared collapse, the United States received intelligence indicating widespread desertions, defections, and troops switching sides, with some elements seeking refuge in Iraq, as disclosed by a U.S. official on condition of anonymity. Reuters could not determine the extent of the manpower shortage or current force strength within the military.
Officers and troops were described by Syrian army sources as demoralized due to consistently low pay, even following significant military victories earlier in the war. Allegations of Assad’s close family amassing great wealth further added to the discontent. A telegram issued on Nov. 28 by the General Command of the Army and Armed Forces mandated full combat readiness, as per a military document discovered by Reuters in a Damascus Air Intelligence office.
Amid signs of desperation within the regime, the Air Intelligence Directorate in Syria censured its personnel for negligence at checkpoints nationwide, following an incident where rebels overran a checkpoint in the south on Dec. 1. The document warned of strict punishment for noncompliance. Despite these directives and warnings, soldiers and officers continued to desert, abandoning their posts and returning home, as observed by residents in Syrian cities and through circulating online videos.
Corruption and low morale were pervasive throughout the military ranks. Many midranking officers expressed growing discontent over the lack of recognition, improved compensation, and resources reflecting the army’s sacrifices and achievements during the war. Following an agreement between Russia and Turkey in 2020 that stabilized frontlines after the regime recaptured major cities and the main highway connecting Damascus and Aleppo, the situation further deteriorated.
Syria, a country also divided by Kurdish-controlled areas, faced ongoing economic challenges due to U.S. sanctions and decreased foreign aid, according to Aron Lund, a fellow at the Middle East-focused think tank Century International. Inflation ran rampant, worsening the situation for most Syrians except for the oligarchs and elites close to Assad, which was disheartening, Lund noted.
Despite government decrees in 2021 to double military salaries in response to inflation exceeding 100%, the purchasing power continued to decline as the Syrian pound depreciated against the dollar. Colonel Makhlouf Makhlouf, who served in an engineering brigade, shared that those who spoke out against corruption risked being summoned to a military court, a situation he experienced multiple times. This environment instilled fear and silence among the people.
Tensions grew, particularly over the past year, with a senior military intelligence officer mentioning a rising discontent against Assad among even core supporters from his Alawite minority community.
The military experiences of Khouli shed light on the army’s challenges and his personal detachment. Initially bribed to delay his mandatory 18-month service at 19, Khouli eventually deserted after being forced to stay indefinitely. His pay was insufficient, often spent on buying food due to inadequate rations. Khouli revealed that those with money could bribe officers to avoid service, a practice he couldn’t afford. He described harsh treatment, heavy labor, and a lack of soldiers in his brigade.
Former servicemen highlighted corruption within the army, with officers stealing and selling resources for personal gain. As the opposition gained ground, some soldiers, like Zuhair, who fought for Assad, found themselves cheering for the rebels due to personal connections and dissatisfaction with the regime.
Assad relied on allies like Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to suppress the opposition uprising that began in 2011. The assistance from these allies contrasted with the dire conditions faced by Syrian soldiers, with reports of units being severely understaffed and lacking basic supplies. The disparity in conditions between Syrian forces and allied militias further exacerbated the discontent within the ranks.
The dynamics of power and influence within the Syrian conflict have taken a significant turn, as reported by key sources on the ground. A sense of distrust and contempt towards regular Syrian forces has been palpable among Iraqi militia commanders and a source familiar with Hezbollah’s strategic thinking. These sources revealed that the militias often hesitated to engage in important operations alongside Syrian forces, highlighting a lack of mutual trust.
The aftermath of the October 7 Hamas attacks orchestrated by Iran-backed elements has led to a notable shift in the region. Sources from an Iraqi militia base near Aleppo and a military adviser stationed in Damascus disclosed that Iran’s presence in Syria underwent a reduction following the Israeli response to the Hamas-led incursion. Israel’s retaliatory strikes targeted Iran-linked sites in Syria, culminating in a significant blow with the elimination of top Revolutionary Guards commanders in a Damascus compound.
The repercussions of these strategic moves were felt acutely on the ground, with a decline in the presence of Revolutionary Guards commanders in Syria, as confirmed by Iraqi sources. The withdrawal of Hezbollah in October further weakened Syria’s military operations command, exacerbating an already precarious situation. The subsequent Russian airstrikes on rebel forces advancing towards Hama and Homs highlighted a lack of effective ground support during this phase of the conflict.
As of December 7, Russia signaled a call for a political transition, marking a shift in its stance on the conflict. The Kremlin’s efforts to support the Assad regime during the civil war were acknowledged, but the evolving circumstances prompted a reevaluation of the situation. In Aleppo, the reliance of Syrian forces on Hezbollah for operational command was underscored by an Alawite Syrian army colonel, who emphasized the challenges faced in maintaining territorial control without Iranian and Hezbollah support.
The recent influx of Iraqi militias into Syria was met with obstacles, as channels of communication with Iranian military advisors had been severed. The escalating tensions culminated in a directive for Iraqi groups to evacuate Hama after it fell to rebel forces, signaling a grim reality on the ground. The sentiment of defeat echoed by the Iraqi military adviser encapsulated the prevailing narrative of a conflict marred by shifting alliances and diminishing strategic resources.
In a complex web of geopolitical maneuvers and internal strife, the Syrian conflict continues to evolve, with each development shaping the trajectory of the broader regional landscape. The interplay of power dynamics, external interventions, and internal divisions underscores the intricate tapestry of conflict that has unfolded in Syria, leaving a trail of uncertainty and shifting allegiances in its wake.
[Reporting by [Your Name] – Insightful Journalism for a Changing World]
