Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics and a former crime analyst for the CIA and the New Orleans Police Department, remarked on the significant decrease in murder victims in 2024 compared to the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. He highlighted that several major U.S. cities had broken annual homicide records in 2021, with Philadelphia experiencing a notable drop of 40% in homicides in 2024.
Other major cities like New Orleans, Washington, D.C., Memphis, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Los Angeles also saw substantial reductions in homicide rates this year. New York City recorded a 7.3% decrease in homicides compared to 2023, while Chicago reported a 7% decline in homicides by December 15. Across 63 cities with populations exceeding 250,000, homicides decreased by at least 15%, and in 246 cities with populations under 250,000, murders were down by at least 19%.
Asher’s research also pointed out a significant drop in property crime nationwide, primarily driven by a 21.4% decrease in motor vehicle theft. He noted that the decrease in auto thefts this year was in contrast to a 12% increase observed the previous year.
Asher has been analyzing crime trends since 2016, with this year’s report based on preliminary crime statistics from 309 U.S. law enforcement agencies, the largest dataset he has ever received. His findings align with data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, indicating a 14% decrease in murders. The Gun Violence Archive also showed an approximate 11% reduction in homicides nationwide.
Overall violent crime rates are on a downward trend, with murder and gun violence declining significantly in both 2023 and 2024. Asher suggested that the U.S. may be approaching one of the lowest violent crime rates since 1970, if not pre-pandemic levels. Alongside the decrease in homicides, rape, robberies, and aggravated assaults also saw declines in 2024 compared to the previous year.
In 2024, the country witnessed a series of high-profile violent incidents, including mass shootings, assassination attempts, and tragic deaths. These events added to the overall concern about public safety. Despite these alarming occurrences, there have been positive developments in combating violent crime. Attorney General Merrick Garland reported a significant drop in homicides across 85 cities, with a nationwide decrease of 17.5%. This progress follows previous efforts to address the spike in violent crime during the pandemic.
Garland credited the success in reducing violent crime to the Department of Justice’s Violent Crime Reduction Roadmap, which provides support to local communities in implementing crime prevention strategies. Additionally, President Joe Biden’s administration has taken steps to address gun violence, including enhancing background checks and allocating resources to support states in enacting “red flag laws.” The establishment of the White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention further underscores the commitment to tackling this pressing issue.
Some cities, like Philadelphia, have implemented violence interrupter programs and invested in community-based initiatives to prevent violence before it occurs. By combining law enforcement strategies with social programs and environmental improvements, these cities aim to reduce homicide rates and create safer communities for all residents. The collective efforts at the local and national levels reflect a commitment to addressing the underlying causes of violence and promoting public safety.
Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker emphasized the importance of maintaining a comprehensive approach of prevention, intervention, and enforcement during a news conference on Nov. 1 regarding the decrease in homicide numbers in the city. “We need to continue pressing forward with our comprehensive approach, which is prevention, intervention, and enforcement,” Mayor Parker stated.
In a move to strengthen gun laws, New York Governor Kathy Hochul recently signed six bills, including one that mandates gun sellers to display safety warnings similar to those on tobacco products. Another bill focuses on addressing illegal devices known as “switches” that can convert semiautomatic handguns into automatic weapons.
Reflecting on the rise in violent crime in 2020 and 2021, Asher highlighted the absence of initiatives like community violence interrupters and the reduction in police department budgets due to the defund-the-police movement following the nationwide protests sparked by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Asher noted that states, local governments, and philanthropies are injecting funds into programs aimed at curbing violent crime. “Some of that is undoubtedly contributing to what we’re seeing now,” Asher acknowledged. “I’m not naïve enough to suggest that that’s the entire explanation. There are undoubtedly a multitude of factors that help to explain this complex problem.”
The potential reasons behind the decrease in homicides in the United States for the third consecutive year were discussed in a report contributed by ABC News’ Calvin Milliner.
The report highlighted the efforts of various stakeholders, including government entities and philanthropic organizations, in addressing violent crime through a combination of prevention, intervention, and enforcement strategies. Mayor Cherelle Parker emphasized the need to continue moving forward with a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue effectively.
In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul signed a set of bills aimed at strengthening gun laws, including measures to regulate gun sellers and crack down on illegal devices that modify firearms. These actions are part of a broader effort to enhance public safety and reduce gun-related violence in the state.
Reflecting on recent trends in violent crime, Asher noted the impact of initiatives like community violence interrupters and increased funding for law enforcement agencies. While acknowledging the complex nature of the issue, Asher highlighted the role of various factors in contributing to the decline in homicides.
As the United States continues to see a decrease in homicides for the third consecutive year, stakeholders remain committed to addressing the root causes of violent crime and implementing strategies to ensure the safety and well-being of communities across the country.
