McLEAN, Va. (AP) — Early on New Year’s Day, Brett Holmgren was awakened by alerts reporting a driver plowing into a crowd of revelers in New Orleans. This deadly attack, which claimed the lives of 14 individuals, was the most severe assault on U.S. soil in years and was attributed to the Islamic State group. Leading the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), Holmgren swiftly collaborated with the FBI to gather information on the perpetrator from Texas and his motives.
This incident, driven by religious extremism, is a rare occurrence of a mass attack within the U.S. But it is not isolated, happening at a time when the global terror threat, fluctuating since the September 11, 2001, attacks, is notably on the rise.
“We are currently navigating a heightened threat landscape,” Holmgren stated in an interview with The Associated Press. “This was the case last year, and we anticipate it will persist in 2025.”
Established in the aftermath of 9/11, the NCTC serves as a central hub for the U.S. government to gather and analyze data on international terrorism, furnishing critical information to shape policies and prevent attacks. Holmgren, a former counterterrorism analyst and assistant secretary of state, assumed the role of acting director last July, intending to step down at the end of the Biden administration. The incoming leadership under President-elect Donald Trump will tackle managing global challenges like the situation in Syria, closely monitored by the NCTC in recent months.
Multiple factors contribute to the heightened threat level, including tensions from the Israel-Hamas conflict and mass migrations resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war. Holmgren highlights the significance of monitoring developments in Africa, where the Islamic State group has a substantial presence, posing a long-term threat to U.S. security.
The most pressing overseas threat identified by Holmgren is the Islamic State’s Afghanistan-based affiliate, Islamic State-Khorasan, responsible for various deadly attacks. Ongoing concerns include the situation in Syria, where the insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has recently seized power. Despite being designated a foreign terror organization, HTS has not targeted U.S. interests in recent years and has collaborated effectively on counterterrorism efforts. Holmgren notes that the decision to maintain this designation is a policy matter, emphasizing HTS’s desire to align with international counterterrorism efforts.
In the complex landscape of global security challenges, the NCTC remains vigilant and proactive in safeguarding against threats and supporting policy decisions to mitigate risks.
In a sign of ongoing turmoil in Syria, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently informed The Associated Press that the United States must maintain a military presence in the region to prevent the Islamic State group from regrouping. Intelligence officials in Syria’s emerging de facto government have successfully foiled a plot by IS to detonate a bomb at a Shia shrine in a Damascus suburb. Concerns persist among U.S. officials regarding the potential for IS to amass strength by seizing weapons abandoned by the Assad regime or orchestrating a mass release of incarcerated fighters.
“A large-scale prisoner release in Syria could significantly bolster IS at a time when the group is facing substantial pressure,” remarked Holmgren. The primary focus of the counterterrorism center is on global terrorism, encompassing incidents like the New Orleans attack where the perpetrator, 42-year-old Shamsud-Din Jabbar, drew inspiration from an overseas group. Prior to ramming his high-speed pickup truck into a crowd on Bourbon Street on January 1, Jabbar publicly pledged allegiance to IS in recorded videos.
Holmgren emphasized that, at present, there is no indication of Jabbar communicating with IS operatives abroad or receiving guidance from external sources. However, as a lone radicalized actor, his actions epitomize the type of threat that authorities have long cautioned against. “This incident underscores the ongoing challenge we face in countering violent extremism both domestically and overseas,” Holmgren noted. He stressed that comprehensive efforts are necessary to thwart future attacks like the one in New Orleans.
Through extensive intelligence gathering, fortified defenses, and proactive counterterrorism measures abroad, the U.S. has significantly reduced the likelihood of another large-scale attack akin to September 11. Nonetheless, Holmgren cautioned against complacency, warning that the threat could resurface if adequate vigilance is not maintained.
