MIAMI – A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche off the eastern coast of Central America has been labeled Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center on Friday. An “invest” is used by the center to mark areas being monitored for potential development into a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days. This designation enables specialized forecast models to track the area’s storm potential.
While the chances of Invest 91L forming into a tropical depression or storm are currently low, forecasters anticipate that the area of showers and thunderstorms will bring much-needed rainfall to parts of drought-affected Mexico. Despite the Bay of Campeche being known for rapid tropical cyclone formation due to warm sea temperatures, various factors are limiting significant development in this instance.
FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar notes, “We will monitor this closely, but the timeframe is short. It’s unlikely to happen in 7 days. We’re focusing on possibly seeing a circulation form by Monday.” Forecast models and the current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation suggest that conditions may hinder tropical cyclone formation.
Any potential impacts from the system would likely stay south of the U.S.–Mexico border near Tampico, Mexico. The Atlantic hurricane season in 2025 has been notably quiet, with low Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) values. Factors like above-normal surface pressures, atmospheric stability, and lack of tropical moisture have suppressed activity in the Atlantic basin.
Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific has seen heightened tropical activity. The recent developments there, including the potential formation of Tropical Storm Flossie, are creating a more hostile upper-level environment over the Gulf and Caribbean. The next name on the Atlantic season list is Barry, but there are no immediate signs of a named storm forming.
Hurricane season typically peaks in mid-September, with cyclone formation extending into early November. Hurricane Hunters are set to conduct reconnaissance flights over the weekend to gather more information on the disturbance’s strength.
