MIAMI – The well-known forecast cone utilized by the National Hurricane Center for predicting the paths of tropical cyclones is scheduled for its yearly update, with indications that the size of the product will decrease in 2025 due to improved accuracy in forecast tracks. The NHC reports that the updated forecast cone is expected to be 3 to 5% smaller compared to the previous year, reflecting advancements in prediction precision over recent years.
Introduced in the 2002 season, the forecast cone comprises a series of forecast circles that depict the likely track of a cyclone’s center over a specific timeframe. The cone undergoes an annual revision, considering forecast track errors from the past five years, and pinpoints the most probable area where the center of circulation might travel.
For the 2025 season, the tropical cyclone forecast error cone will be approximately 3-5% smaller for systems in the Atlantic basin and 5-10% smaller for systems in the eastern Pacific. The most significant reduction occurs at the 96-hour mark, where the cone’s width will decrease by 6%. The updated cone ranges from about 45 miles wide around the 24-hour forecast mark to up to 245 miles wide by the 120-hour mark.
Despite the increased precision, hurricanes track within the cone only about two-thirds of the time, with the remaining third deviating outside the cone, necessitating updated forecasts.
While the updated cone enhances forecasting accuracy, some hurricane experts caution that focusing solely on the cone may divert attention from broader storm impacts such as storm surge, flooding, and winds that can extend beyond the cone’s boundaries. Instances where storms have strayed from the cone’s center, like Hurricane Charley in 2004 and Hurricane Ian in 2022, emphasize the need for public awareness beyond the cone’s boundaries.
Experts also highlight a potential issue of “cry wolf” scenarios in certain regions where residents may become complacent due to being frequently placed within the cone without experiencing significant damage. To counter this misconception, the NHC introduced inland watches and warnings to an experimental product in 2024, which will be reinstated for 2025.
In addition to the smaller cone, the NHC will roll out further improvements for the 2025 hurricane season starting on June 1, including heightened focus on rip current risks and earlier issuance of potential tropical cyclone alerts. These enhancements aim to bolster preparedness for emergency responders and residents, enabling swifter and more effective actions ahead of tropical weather events.
Despite its shortcomings, the NHC emphasizes that the forecast cone remains a crucial tool in hurricane forecasting, with continuous updates and refinements enhancing preparedness and response amidst the ever-evolving nature of tropical weather.
