Ahead of the upcoming hurricane season, researchers are closely monitoring various factors that may impact the level of tropical activity. One key factor under scrutiny is the sea surface temperature, which is a crucial element in the formation of tropical systems. While warm water is abundant in the Gulf and Caribbean, the eastern Atlantic has cooler temperatures compared to this time last year, as noted by hurricane climatologist Jill Trepanier from LSU.
Trepanier explained that the Bermuda High and trade winds are driving warm ocean water westward while colder water is upwelling in the eastern Atlantic. Although these conditions may not directly affect tropical development in the Gulf and eastern coastlines, they could influence storm formation near Africa and warm waters closer to the mainland U.S.
Additionally, this year is forecasted to be ENSO-neutral, meaning that neither El Niño nor La Niña will have a significant impact on tropical activity. This neutral pattern suggests a regular, normal climate, but extreme weather events can still occur. Therefore, it is crucial to remain vigilant, especially for storms forming near coastlines.
Another factor in the upcoming hurricane season is the presence of Saharan dust, which has the potential to hinder tropical development by absorbing the moisture needed for storms to form. The movement of warm ocean water and dust from the Sahara may impact storm formation in the Atlantic.
As the official start of hurricane season approaches on June 1, researchers will continue to monitor these factors to better understand their influence on tropical activity.
