On February 21, we are 100 days away from the official commencement of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. This milestone offers us a glimpse into what the season may hold, how to prepare, and a reflection on storms that have occurred prior to the season’s start.
1. Insights on the Upcoming Hurricane Season
While it is premature to predict the severity of this hurricane season, there are some indicators we can consider. One key factor is the status of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), which can influence the level of activity during the season. This year, there is no clear bias towards increased or decreased activity, with a neutral outlook potentially leading to a less active season. Additionally, water temperatures play a crucial role in tropical storm formation. Although temperatures in the basin are above average, they are slightly cooler than the previous year. The Caribbean, Gulf, and western Atlantic are areas to monitor closely for early tropical activity as they warm up first. The Gulf, in particular, is notably warmer than usual, which could foster more storm development if sustained. Based on these factors, it appears that an average to slightly above-average hurricane season is on the horizon, but with significant time left before the season officially begins, more insights will emerge in the coming months.
2. Early Start of Hurricane Season
It is essential to note that the official start date of June 1 does not always signify the beginning of hurricane activity. Recent years have seen storms forming before the designated start date, such as Tropical Storm Arlene in 2023 and Tropical Storm Bonnie in 2016. In exceptional cases, hurricanes like Alex in 2016 and Beryl in 2012 have occurred outside the typical season timeframe, highlighting the unpredictability of storm patterns.
3. Preparing for the Next 100 Days
– Consider flood insurance: If your area has a history of flooding, securing flood insurance is advisable. The risk of inland flooding from hurricanes is increasing, affecting regions beyond traditional hurricane zones. From the Appalachians to the Northeast and even parts of the West, new flood threats are emerging. Remember, standard homeowner’s insurance may not cover flood damage, making flood insurance a crucial safeguard.
Insurance is crucial, especially flood insurance, which can take over a month to acquire. Waiting until a hurricane is on the horizon is too late. It’s important to review your plans, such as having an evacuation strategy in place and knowing your evacuation zone. Familiarize yourself with the location of your hurricane kit and essential items. Consider doing a practice run to your evacuation spot to ease any anxiety when the time comes.
Saving money is also essential. Establish an emergency fund to cover unforeseen expenses. This doesn’t have to be a large sum – even a small amount transferred weekly into a savings account can accumulate over time. Once you have a solid emergency fund, focus on upgrading your hurricane kit. Add items like batteries and flashlights whenever you have extra funds available.
Be mindful of where you choose to vacation. Avoid planning major trips in hurricane-prone regions like the Caribbean or Mexican Riviera during peak hurricane season (August to October) to prevent travel disruptions.
Jonathan Belles, a seasoned graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com, has been contributing for 8 years. He also assists in creating videos for The Weather Channel en español. Specializing in tropical weather, he also covers impactful weather events, news stories, and winter storms. Jonathan holds degrees from Florida State University and St. Petersburg College.
