The first tropical storm of 2025 may form before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, signaling what experts predict to be an active year for hurricanes. In mid-May, a large, slow-spinning atmospheric disturbance could emerge over Central America, overlapping with parts of the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon, known as the Central American Gyre, can create conditions conducive for the development of a tropical depression or storm.
This presents the most promising opportunity so far for the first named tropical storm of 2025 to arise in both the Caribbean and eastern Pacific regions, though meteorologists at AccuWeather currently assess the chances of development as low. “We’re entering the season where vigilance is key in the Caribbean,” stated AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. He anticipates a wetter pattern in Central America extending into the Western Caribbean, potentially resulting in tropical downpours and localized flooding in areas like Jamaica, Cuba, and the western Caribbean islands, with possible impacts reaching South Florida.
As we transition from winter into the tropical weather season, DaSilva encourages people to be mindful of potential developments by the end of May. If a tropical system does materialize from the gyre, it is likely to track northeast, passing over Jamaica and Cuba before heading out to sea. Historical data shows that May is a common month for tropical storm activity, often fueled by warming waters in the Caribbean and conducive atmospheric conditions.
The formation of the gyre over Central America hinges on factors such as the jet stream’s behavior and the presence of low wind shear. A jet stream dip over the southeastern United States in mid-May could potentially trigger the gyre formation. Monitoring these conditions will be crucial in assessing the likelihood of tropical storm development in the coming weeks.
Her team of forecasters is keeping a close watch on the region for possible tropical development. Last year, a gyre played a role in the creation of Tropical Storm Alberto, which hit the Gulf coast of Mexico in mid-June. A gyre was also present in the western Caribbean in June 2023, but it did not result in the formation of a named tropical storm.
