Initially, the river in Texas swelled. Subsequently, heavy rainfall hit North Carolina, New Mexico, and Illinois in quick succession. In less than a week, the United States experienced at least four extreme rainfall events that are considered to have a 0.1% chance of occurring in any given year — events that are described as 1-in-1,000-year occurrences.
Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, remarked on the rarity of these intense rainfall events happening concurrently across multiple regions in the country within such a short timeframe. This alarming trend is attributed to climate change, which is expected to make such extreme weather events more common in the future.
Tragic consequences ensued from these events, with over 120 fatalities reported in central Texas due to flash flooding, while Tropical Storm Chantal caused extensive flooding in North Carolina. In New Mexico, devastating flash floods claimed lives in the village of Ruidoso, and Chicago experienced significant rainfall leading to needed rescues.
While 1-in-1,000-year floods are statistically uncommon, experts point out that some occurrence is expected each year across the country due to the probability distribution. Climate change is projected to amplify the frequency and intensity of such extreme flooding events, as the atmosphere’s increased capacity for moisture can result in heavier and more prolonged rainfall.
Attribution science supports the link between a warmer climate and more severe storms, as warmer air can hold more moisture, thereby increasing the potential for intense rainfall. As a result, the likelihood of extreme weather events, like the recent floods, is expected to rise in the coming years.
The effects of climate change on extreme weather events are becoming increasingly evident, impacting snow and water resources worldwide. Terrain plays a crucial role during heavy rainfall, as seen in Texas where hills and canyons make flash flooding a common issue. Limited water absorption due to thin soil atop bedrock further exacerbates the problem. In New Mexico, the aftermath of wildfires in Ruidoso has heightened the risk of flash flooding by creating burn scars that increase runoff. The recent events underscore the importance of protecting communities before and after such disasters occur. Recovery efforts may span years, with lingering consequences on public health. It is essential to remember that for those affected, the process of healing and rebuilding is prolonged and requires ongoing support.
