NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its latest forecast for astronomical spring, running until June 20. The outlook projects above-average temperatures across much of the country, with ongoing drought in the Southwest. This warmer and drier trend is expected to reduce the risk of widespread flooding in many areas.
The Spring Outlook is crucial for various industries like agriculture, shipping, and recreation to prepare for the upcoming season. The Great Lakes and the Pacific Northwest are likely to see increased precipitation, leading to average or below-average temperatures due to increased cloud cover.
NOAA does not anticipate significant impacts from La Niña or El Niño this spring, indicating localized weather patterns will be more influential. ENSO-neutral conditions, also known as “La Nada,” are characterized by Pacific water temperature anomalies falling within a specific range.
The current drought affecting 40% of the U.S. is worsened by decreased snowfall in winter, particularly in northern regions. Southern areas like the Southwest, Florida, and the Southeast are at a heightened risk of wildfires until significant rainfall occurs, likely after the start of meteorological summer.
Meteorological summer begins on June 1 and lasts until August, while astronomical summer officially starts on June 20 and continues until the fall equinox on September 22. Meteorological seasons follow calendar months, making it easier for forecasters to analyze weather patterns. In contrast, astronomical seasons are based on Earth’s position relative to the Sun.
