Mark Carney is set to be sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Canada in the upcoming days, following his victory in the race to replace Justin Trudeau. He will lead the governing Liberal Party of Canada into the next election, which is expected to be called soon. Several political leaders pushed for a vote after Trudeau announced his resignation as the Liberal Party leader in January. Amidst escalating tensions caused by US President Donald Trump’s imposition of steep tariffs on Canada, opposition parties have urged for an early election. By law, federal elections in Canada must be held within five years, with the next scheduled for October 20, 2025.
However, there exists the possibility of an early election. When Trudeau stepped down, he suspended parliament to allow the Liberal Party, which currently holds power, to conduct a leadership race for his replacement. Carney, revealed as Trudeau’s successor on Sunday, could trigger an early election. Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, has announced plans for a vote of no confidence once parliament reconvenes, a sentiment echoed by Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party.
In the Canadian federal election, as in the UK’s general election, voters do not directly elect a prime minister. The party leader with the most MPs becomes the PM. As such, Carney will be a contender alongside Poilievre and Singh. The main parties competing in the upcoming election are the Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats, and Bloc Quebecois. The Liberals have been in power since 2015, currently holding 153 seats, while the Conservatives serve as the official opposition with 120 seats. The Bloc Quebecois has 33 seats, the NDP has 24, and the Green Party holds two.
Towards the end of Trudeau’s term, opinion polls consistently favored the Conservatives, but the gap narrowed after Trudeau’s departure and Trump’s tariffs on Canada, sparking expectations of a closer election. Trudeau resigned due to pressure from within his party, as his dwindling popularity was seen as detrimental to the party’s electoral prospects. Polling trends throughout 2023 and 2024 indicated declining support for the Liberals and a surge for the Conservatives. Recent polling data shows a rebound for the Liberals, with 40.4% support for the Conservatives compared to 30.8% for the Liberals.
In light of the trade war initiated by Trump, Carney, upon being announced as Trudeau’s successor, emphasized Canada’s determination to prevail. The country has 343 federal ridings, also known as constituencies or electoral districts.
In Canada, the political landscape is divided between the House of Commons and the Senate, with each playing a distinct role in the country’s governance. The House of Commons is home to Members of Parliament (MPs) who are elected by the people during nationwide elections. Meanwhile, the Senate consists of appointed members who do not participate in direct electoral contests.
Similar to the electoral system in the United Kingdom, Canada employs a “first-past-the-post” system where the candidate with the most votes in a riding secures the seat in the House of Commons. This means that a candidate does not necessarily need to win the majority of votes in their area, just more than their opponents. As a result, other political parties may not win any representation in that particular riding.
The party with the highest number of elected MPs typically forms the government in Canada, with their leader assuming the role of Prime Minister. On the other hand, the second-largest party becomes the official opposition, tasked with holding the government accountable and offering alternative perspectives on policy matters.
In cases where no single party secures a majority of seats in the House of Commons, a hung parliament or minority government arises. This scenario necessitates cross-party cooperation to pass legislation and make governance decisions effectively.
To participate in Canadian elections, individuals must meet certain criteria, including being a Canadian citizen, at least 18 years old, and possessing valid identification and proof of address.
In summary, the Canadian political system is characterized by a blend of electoral processes, parliamentary structures, and democratic principles that shape the nation’s governance and decision-making processes.
