An alteration in the jet stream may lead to an increase in severe weather activity across the central part of the country in the upcoming week. Here is what to know about the potential severe threat anticipated for next week:
– Timing: The prime window for severe weather is currently projected to be from Wednesday through Friday, possibly extending into Saturday.
– Where: The threat area spans from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley; particularly on Thursday, regions in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, and Wisconsin could experience severe weather, as indicated in the map below. This risk might shift eastward towards the end of the week.
– What: Initially, the severe threat is expected to be from supercells producing large hail and some tornadoes, though damaging winds could become the predominant severe weather hazard by late Thursday through the weekend. The likelihood of larger outbreaks of severe thunderstorms or tornadoes remains uncertain.
– Preparedness: It is vital to be aware of safe shelter locations during severe weather events. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, such as through your smartphone, NOAA weather radio, and local media.
As the jet stream pattern shifts in the upcoming week, a southward dip is forecasted to move into the West by Tuesday, allowing warm and humid air to flow northward from the Gulf into the Plains under the influence of an active jet stream. This setup favors the development of severe thunderstorms in the nation’s heartland during this time of the year. However, the speed and intensity of the northward push of humid air in the Plains might be affected by a stationary low-pressure system in the Southeast.
Regarding spring tornado activity, the Storm Prediction Center had received 31 reports of tornadoes through the first days of May. While May typically sees the highest tornado activity in the U.S., the numbers so far indicate a relatively quiet start compared to previous years.
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist, is closely monitoring these weather patterns and can be contacted for further updates on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook.
