Pope Leo XIV, a surprise ascendant from the first American pope, caught online betting sites Polymarket and Kalshi off guard. Prior to the announcement, these sites had pegged Chicago native Robert Prevost as a long shot, with odds between 1% and 2%. When the white smoke signaled the papal conclave’s choice, some lucky bettors who had faith in Prevost reaped substantial rewards. One Polymarket user, for instance, turned a little over $1,000 into a $63,683 profit.
While betting markets have shown accuracy in predicting certain outcomes, such as Donald Trump’s 2024 election win, they have faltered in other instances like the 2016 Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential election. The difficulty lies in the scarcity of data available for papal betting, as the conclave process is opaque and occurs infrequently.
Despite insights from academics and journalists, predicting the papal election remains a challenge due to limited data points and the unpredictable nature of the conclave. The influence of the Holy Spirit, believed by Catholics to guide the cardinals’ choice, remains immeasurable to market participants and observers alike.
In conclusion, even in a supposedly well-calibrated market, the intricacies of the papal election process and the spiritual component make it a unique and unpredictable event that defies conventional prediction methods.
