Following a string of notable disasters, concerns arose on social media about a potential increase in aviation accidents. Terrifying videos of close calls gained traction online, prompting US Transport Secretary Sean Duffy to address the issue in an interview with CBS News, a BBC affiliate. Duffy assured viewers that the recent wave of air disasters in the US was “highly unusual.”
The Secretary’s remarks came in the wake of several serious incidents, including a fatal mid-air collision in Washington DC in January involving a commercial airliner and a military helicopter, resulting in 67 casualties.
Footage of a plane flipping upon landing in adverse weather conditions in Toronto, Canada, circulated widely online, intensifying anxiety.
While there is limited polling data on the topic, a recent survey by the Associated Press indicated that these alarming accident visuals had impacted the confidence of some US air travelers.
However, an analysis by BBC Verify revealed that air accidents have actually been decreasing over the past twenty years, both in the US and globally.
According to data compiled by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) up to January of this year, air accidents in the US have been on a downward trend since 2005, despite a rise in the total number of flights during this period. The figures for January 2025 (52) were lower than those of January last year (58) and January 2023 (70).
Information from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), a UN agency monitoring global air incidents, showed a consistent decline in worldwide accidents per million plane departures between 2005 and 2023.
The ICAO’s definition of an aircraft accident is broad, encompassing instances where passengers or crew sustain serious injuries or fatalities, as well as incidents requiring aircraft repairs or involving missing planes.
Global data on air accident fatalities similarly indicated a decrease over the same period, with occasional spikes in certain years due to major disasters.
In 2014, two significant events contributed to a notable increase in fatalities. The disappearance of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 in March, carrying 239 individuals from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, and the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine in July by a Russian-made missile, resulting in nearly 300 casualties, were particularly impactful.
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, cautioned that data sets like these often exhibit sudden, large fluctuations due to random events clustering together, leading to perceptions of connections where there may be none.
Discussing the recent series of high-profile accidents, former Chief Air Disaster Investigator of Finland, Ismo Aaltonen, emphasized to BBC Verify that these incidents do not signify a decline in aviation safety.
Aaltonen highlighted the diverse nature of the accidents and stressed the importance of not drawing overarching conclusions based on this cluster of incidents, some of which were unforeseeable.
A recent tragedy involving an Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan following a Russian anti-aircraft missile attack has brought renewed attention to air safety concerns. Marco Chan, a former pilot and senior lecturer at Buckinghamshire New University, highlighted the increased awareness of aviation disasters, attributing this rise to the extensive coverage provided by social media platforms.
One particularly striking video circulating on TikTok, taken from a Superman movie, portrays the superhero averting a jet crash into a stadium. Accompanying this clip is a caption alluding to Pete Buttigieg, the former US transportation secretary, suggesting a correlation between his tenure and the surge in aviation incidents post-January. The viral nature of this content underscores the public’s growing interest in aviation mishaps and their possible causes.
The Boeing 737 Max aircraft has also been at the center of attention due to a series of incidents, notably a mid-flight door malfunction in January 2024. These occurrences have led to some passengers boycotting Boeing planes and a subsequent decline in the company’s stock value. Experts stress the importance of thorough investigations into such incidents to enhance safety protocols and pilot training.
Ismo Aaltonen, an industry expert, highlighted the advancements in pilot training simulators, likening them to real aircraft and emphasizing the evolution of training methods over the years. Regulatory bodies play a crucial role in enforcing safety standards through penalties such as fines, license suspensions, and operational limitations. Airlines risk being barred from operating in certain regions if they fail to meet these stringent requirements.
Despite recent incidents raising concerns, statistics affirm that air travel remains the safest mode of transportation. Data from the US Department of Transportation indicates that over 95% of transport-related fatalities in 2022 occurred on roads, with less than 1% linked to air travel. When comparing fatalities per distance traveled, the safety superiority of air travel becomes even more apparent.
In 2022, the National Safety Council reported just 0.001 passenger deaths per 100,000,000 miles flown on airlines, significantly lower than the figure for passenger vehicles. Ismo Aaltonen cautioned travelers to remain vigilant during their journey to the airport, emphasizing that this phase poses more risk than the actual flight itself.
While recent aviation incidents have garnered widespread attention, they serve as a reminder of the continuous efforts to enhance air safety measures. The industry’s commitment to learning from past mishaps, incorporating new technologies into training, and enforcing strict regulations underscores the collective dedication to ensuring the well-being of passengers and crew alike.
In conclusion, the aviation sector’s resilience in the face of challenges reaffirms its position as a safe and reliable mode of travel. As stakeholders continue to collaborate on improving safety standards and procedures, passengers can rest assured that every effort is being made to uphold the highest levels of safety within the aviation industry.
