Every day, the Storm Prediction Center of NOAA issues severe thunderstorm outlooks to inform the public about the potential for tornadoes, strong winds, and large hail in specific areas. Meteorologists use these outlooks to communicate severe weather forecasts to the public through various platforms such as The Weather Channel app, weather.com, and local news stations. These outlooks categorize the level of risk based on the probability of severe weather occurrences within a 25-mile radius of a given location.
The outlooks range from Level 1 to Level 5, indicating the severity of the threat. Level 1 signifies isolated severe thunderstorms that may produce hail up to quarter-size and gusty winds. Level 2 indicates scattered severe storms with the potential for isolated tornadoes and hail over 1 inch in diameter. Level 3 suggests numerous severe thunderstorms with a higher likelihood of tornadoes, wind, and hail damage. Level 4 represents widespread severe thunderstorms with a high probability of strong tornadoes and damaging winds. Level 5 indicates an expected severe weather outbreak with multiple tornadoes or a destructive long-lived derecho.
The Storm Prediction Center updates these thunderstorm forecasts over an eight-day period, with more frequent updates in the first three days. Forecasters rely on various tools such as satellite and radar imagery, weather models, pattern recognition, and expertise to provide accurate predictions. It is essential to stay informed about these outlooks to prepare and stay safe during severe weather events.
Tornadoes are rare in this area, but when they do occur, they are likely to be strong (EF2-plus) or violent (EF4-plus) and have long paths. The Storm Prediction Center describes this as a high risk when there is high confidence in widespread severe weather with extreme instances. On The Weather Channel app and weather.com, this threat is labeled as “extreme.” While not all areas under this highest threat level will experience severe weather, communities generally have a 30% or higher chance of seeing severe storms. Severe weather in these outlooks refers to thunderstorms that produce wind gusts of at least 58 mph, wind damage, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, or tornadoes. Excessive rainfall or flooding is not included in these forecast threat levels, and such outlooks can be found at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. While lightning is not explicitly forecasted in these outlooks, the risk is implied when thunderstorms are predicted.
