On the morning following Donald Trump’s first inauguration in January 2017, acting National Park Service director Mike Reynolds was at home making breakfast when he received a call from the new president. Trump, a Republican, was displeased with photographs from media outlets suggesting that his inauguration crowd in Washington’s National Mall was smaller than the one that had gathered for former Democratic President Barack Obama’s swearing-in ceremony in 2009, according to two sources familiar with the call. Trump instructed Reynolds and the Park Service – responsible for the National Mall – to provide new images from their own photos taken that day to rectify the perception that Trump’s inaugural crowd was smaller than Obama’s. The NPS later sent new photos to the White House.
With President-elect Trump’s second inauguration just a week away and his fixation on attendance numbers at his public events still strong, crowd size is expected to once again be a point of focus for Trump, media outlets, and crowd-size experts monitoring the ceremony. There are concerns within the Park Service that the agency might once again be embroiled in an inauguration crowd-size controversy if its images of the number of attendees on the National Mall on Jan. 20 do not please Trump.
Rachel Reisner, the Trump inaugural committee’s communications director, did not comment on the expected number of people in the National Mall the following week. “The team is finalizing plans for a series of unforgettable events. The Inaugural events will bring together supporters, industry leaders, and diplomats from diverse backgrounds to Washington DC,” Reisner stated.
The NPS ceased providing crowd-size estimates for events on the Mall in 1996 after facing a lawsuit over its estimate for the Million Man March in 1995. The Park Service will be taking photographs of next Monday’s event, not for crowd size estimates. Media outlets, including Reuters, have been granted permission to capture photos from the top of the 555-foot-high Washington Monument, offering a panoramic view of the entire inaugural crowd. A Reuters photo from Trump’s first inauguration, taken from atop the Washington Monument, played a significant role in suggesting a smaller attendance compared to Obama’s first inauguration.
Experts in crowd size estimate that the number of people on the National Mall for Obama’s first inauguration ranged between 800,000 and 1 million. In 2017, Trump drew approximately one-third of that total. The 2021 inauguration of Democratic President Joe Biden was much smaller due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Trump’s preoccupation with crowd size continued during the 2024 presidential campaign, where he claimed repeatedly that his crowds were larger than those of his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Attendees of inaugurations come from various parts of the country, often in buses organized by political groups supporting the incoming president.
G. Keith Still, a renowned crowd scientist and visiting professor at the University of Suffolk in England, analyzed Trump’s 2017 inaugural crowd in real time and will do so again during next week’s ceremony
To estimate crowd size accurately, Steven Still utilizes Google Earth to calculate the area occupied by the crowd and then determines the number of individuals per square yard. This method allows for a relatively reliable estimate of crowd size, as stated by Still. He further supports his findings by considering various factors such as the number of riders on Washington’s metro train system, queue sizes at entry points to the National Mall, rates of space occupation on the Mall, and car park occupancy. “The numbers don’t lie,” remarked Still.
The controversy surrounding crowd size dominated the initial days of Donald Trump’s presidency. Shortly after Trump’s inauguration, his then-White House press secretary, Sean Spicer, asserted during a press conference that the event had drawn the largest audience ever, both in-person and globally. Spicer referenced figures, later acknowledged as inaccurate, which suggested that 720,000 people were present on the National Mall. In contrast, Trump himself, speaking at CIA headquarters the day following his inauguration, believed the crowd to be closer to “a million and a half people.”
The National Park Service (NPS) issues permits to the inaugural committee of the incoming president, allowing crowds to gather on the National Mall to witness the swearing-in ceremony. For the upcoming ceremony, the permit application prepared by the NPS on behalf of Trump’s inaugural committee includes a temporary estimate of 500,000 attendees on the National Mall, as indicated in a document obtained by Reuters. Notably, Trump’s 2017 National Mall permit also featured a placeholder figure for crowd size. The final permitted range for that event was between 750,000 and 1 million individuals, according to the NPS permit.
In the context of Donald Trump’s inauguration, the obsession with crowd size is poised to be once again put to the test. The meticulous calculations and estimations undertaken by experts like Steven Still provide a methodical approach to understanding and approximating the number of people in attendance at significant events such as presidential inaugurations. As the debate over crowd size continues to capture public attention, the reliance on data-driven analyses and the consideration of various contributing factors remain essential in arriving at informed and credible estimates.
This article was originally published on USA TODAY and covers the persistent focus on crowd size, particularly in the context of Donald Trump’s inauguration, showcasing the ongoing interest and scrutiny surrounding this aspect of high-profile events.