Severe weather, including a risk of tornadoes, is forecasted to ramp up again later this week in parts of the storm-weary South, Midwest, and Plains states. The recent period of relatively calm weather following the early April outbreak of over 140 tornadoes is coming to an end, as is typical in spring. While specific details of this forecast are still uncertain, here is what you need to know at the moment.
Where And When:
– Late Thursday night into Friday: Portions of the Plains and Midwest
– Easter holiday weekend: From the Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains on Saturday, then shifting to the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Easter Sunday
– Next week: Areas of the central and Southern Plains extending into the South and occasionally the Ohio Valley could experience one or more rounds of severe weather
Friday’s Severe Thunderstorm Threat:
Potential Threats:
– Damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail, and the possibility of a few tornadoes are expected each day from late this week through next week.
– It is still too early to determine if there will be more significant outbreaks of severe weather, possibly with more numerous tornadoes, some of which could be strong.
– Localized flooding from heavy rainfall is also a concern, particularly in the mentioned areas by next week.
How This May Differ:
– The confirmed tornadoes and reports from the three significant outbreaks since mid-March are depicted on the map below. The red icons are clustered over the Mississippi and Ohio valleys and the Deep South.
– Considering the rainfall outlook from late this week into next week, the focus for the heaviest rain is projected to be more centered on the Southern Plains, from Texas to the Ozarks.
– Severe thunderstorms, especially next week, are expected to be concentrated farther west into the Southern Plains compared to recent outbreaks.
Reasons for the Severe Weather Return:
– A jet stream moving southward into the West and extending into the Plains states will draw warm and humid air northward from the Gulf, a configuration known to produce more severe weather in the South and central U.S. during spring.
– In recent weeks, the opposite pattern has kept severe weather relatively subdued since the early April outbreak.
Actions To Take:
– If you are in one of the mentioned areas, have a plan ready in case of severe weather.
– Ensure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings from the National Weather Service, including smartphone alerts, NOAA weather radio, and local media.
– Identify the safest location to seek shelter quickly if a warning is issued. For those in manufactured homes, a community storm shelter may be the safest option.
– Promptly heed any warnings issued, including those for severe thunderstorms, as they can also pose risks.
– Never attempt to drive through floodwaters, as the water may be deeper or the road underneath may have been washed away. Flooding incidents have already resulted in 33 fatalities in 2025, according to the National Weather Service
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com since 1996, specializes in extreme and unusual weather phenomena. Connect with him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook.
