WASHINGTON — The new Congress convened on Friday, with a slim House Republican majority ready to confront significant challenges in the early months of Donald Trump’s second term. These challenges range from keeping the government operational to preventing a potential debt default and advancing the incoming president’s immigration and tax priorities.
Despite winning a 220-215 majority in the 2024 elections, House Republicans began with 219 members as former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned and chose not to return to his seat. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., retained his position by a narrow margin on Friday, following some uncertainty, losing a crucial vote from Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky. Although he managed to secure two additional votes after an extended ballot, the real test lies ahead for the Louisiana Republican.
The House majority is expected to dwindle further in the coming weeks, as President Trump announced the selection of two House Republicans for his administration — Michael Waltz of Florida as national security adviser and Elise Stefanik of New York as United Nations ambassador. The process of replacing these members is anticipated to take several months. If both depart before Gaetz’s replacement is in place, the majority would be reduced to a precarious 217-215, where a single Republican defection could derail legislation unless Democrats provide support.
The upcoming months will be crucial for House Republicans, as they face challenges such as maintaining a zero-vote margin for defection and potential difficulties in passing party-line bills due to unforeseen circumstances affecting members’ attendance. In comparison, Republicans will hold a slightly larger majority in the Senate, with a 53-47 split, as senators take office and commence hearings on Trump’s Cabinet nominees.
The legislative agenda for 2025 is packed with pressing tasks. Key priorities include securing government funding by March 14, resolving disagreements over budget allocations, and advancing Trump’s policies on immigration, energy, and taxes. House Republicans aim to expedite the legislative process using budget reconciliation to bypass the Senate’s usual 60-vote requirement, focusing on fiscal matters and tax policies to push through critical components of the president’s agenda.
Legislative compromises are looming on the horizon, presenting a challenge that conservatives may find difficult to navigate. Democrats have the authority to scrutinize and remove any clauses that are not directly related to tax or spending, disqualifying them from the streamlined 50-vote process. Tensions have already surfaced publicly, with incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., advocating for the bill’s division into two separate pieces of legislation. Thune aims to secure a swift victory in allocating additional funding for border security, before revisiting a partisan bill later in the year to prolong Trump’s tax cuts beyond their expiration in 2025. However, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., the chair of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, cautions fellow Republicans against delaying the tax bill, warning that such a delay could imperil the legislation and potentially result in a massive tax increase.
Regardless of the chosen strategy, Republicans must strive for consensus on contentious issues such as the extent to which the deficit should be increased, and which components of President Joe Biden’s initiatives should be rescinded to finance their new policies. The latter presents a complex situation, as certain facets of Biden’s eco-friendly programs, which Republican leaders are eyeing for repeal, provide benefits to districts predominantly represented by Republicans.
Debt Ceiling Extension
The United States is on the verge of reaching its debt ceiling this month, as stipulated by a bipartisan law enacted last year. To prevent a default with grave repercussions for the national and global economy, the government will resort to employing “extraordinary measures” to cover expenses. While this approach may buy Congress some time, a decision to extend the debt ceiling is inevitable later this year.
During the prior month, a last-minute demand by former President Trump to have Congress handle the debt ceiling issue was met with resistance from both political parties. Despite Trump’s threat to challenge GOP members who supported a funding bill without resolving the debt limit, 170 Republicans backed the measure. Many Republicans consistently oppose increasing or extending the debt ceiling, leaving Democrats to typically step in. However, Democrats may be hesitant to assist Republicans in raising the debt ceiling at a time when the GOP is pushing through a tax bill primarily benefiting the affluent.
The question arises: will Republicans be able to strike a deal with Democrats on this matter? Is it plausible for them to raise the borrowing limit solely with GOP support, potentially through a reconciliation bill? Behind closed doors, Republicans agreed last month to pursue $2.5 trillion in spending reductions in 2025 alongside a debt ceiling increase, a move aimed at appeasing conservative hardliners. Nevertheless, skeptics argue that such an arrangement may not hold water.
Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., a vocal critic of past debt limit increases, expressed skepticism about the efficacy of the proposed agreement. “They call that a gentleman’s agreement,” remarked Burchett, “And there are no gentlemen up here, dude.”
In the realm of legislative negotiations,
