“In general, it’s a positive development for Meta,” shared William Blair research analyst Ralph Schackart with Yahoo Finance. “We project that up to 60% to 70% of TikTok’s advertising expenditure could shift to Instagram, which monetizes at approximately three times the rate of TikTok.”
The competition between Meta and TikTok has been ongoing, with Mark Zuckerberg highlighting concerns about Chinese technological superiority over the U.S. and potential threats to freedom of speech. In response, Zuckerberg introduced Instagram and Facebook’s Reels feature, a short-form video service akin to TikTok, in an effort to counter the competitive platform and draw users back to his own social media networks.
Should TikTok cease operations, it is anticipated that users will gravitate towards Meta’s applications, leading to an expansion in the user base and increased engagement on the platforms. Consequently, this surge in activity would drive up advertising revenues.
YouTube, along with its Shorts platform, is poised to benefit from TikTok’s potential exit. According to Morgan Stanley’s managing director Brian Nowak, diverting just 10% of the time users would have spent on TikTok to YouTube could result in an additional $400 million to $750 million in ad revenue for the video-sharing platform.
Nonetheless, Nowak cautioned that this windfall wouldn’t significantly impact Google, YouTube’s parent company, as the projected growth would only constitute a small fraction, ranging from 0.1% to 0.3%, of Google’s total 2026 ad revenue estimates. He emphasized that Google’s primary opportunities for growth remain in search and artificial intelligence advancements.
Social media entities like Reddit, Snap, and Pinterest have been emulating TikTok’s success formula in pursuit of replicating the platform’s achievements. For instance, Reddit has introduced its own short-form video feed, attracting former TikTok users seeking a diverse social media platform with various discussion boards and communities.
Snapchat also stands to gain users who might have otherwise spent time on TikTok, along with the accompanying advertising revenue. However, as Nowak pointed out, Snap must ensure that it can retain these TikTok migrants consistently, akin to TikTok’s engagement practices, to secure ongoing ad revenue.
Pinterest could experience an upsurge in activity if TikTok exits the market. Despite differing significantly in design from TikTok, Pinterest might appeal to online retailers aiming to bolster e-commerce sales, a feat TikTok has accomplished through its influencer network.
Nonetheless, the fate of TikTok remains uncertain, leaving these companies unable to rely on the potential growth a shutdown might bring. They must await the outcome regarding the social media giant’s future, just like other stakeholders.
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