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Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL)
Q4 2024 Earnings Call
Dec 20, 2024, 10:00 a.m. ET
Contents:
Prepared Remarks
Questions and Answers
Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Carnival Corporation & plc fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Beth Roberts, senior vice president, investor relations. Please go ahead, Beth.
Beth Roberts — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I’m joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our chief financial officer, David Bernstein; and our chair, Micky Arison. Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement in today’s press release. All references to ticket prices, net per diems, net yields, and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. References to per diems and yields will be on a net basis. Our comments may also reference cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, free cash flow, and ROIC, all of which will be on an adjusted basis unless otherwise stated.
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All these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and in our investor presentation. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found.
With that, I’d like to turn the
In the past two years, there has been significant improvement in fourth quarter net income, surpassing expectations by over $125 million and showing a year-over-year increase of over $250 million. The strong performance was seen across the board, with robust demand leading to higher yields, per diems, EBITDA, and operating income reaching new highs. Total revenues for the year reached a record $25 billion, with cash from operations also hitting an all-time high of nearly $6 billion. The year saw a notable 11% increase in yield, mainly driven by higher prices, finishing almost 250 basis points above initial projections, supported by a strong demand environment sustained throughout the year.
Price increases were observed across all major brands and trades, ranging from mid-single digits to mid-teens percentages in 2024. Onboard spending levels saw sequential acceleration each quarter, while unit costs were 100 basis points below original guidance for the year, benefiting from cost-saving initiatives and a more favorable inflationary environment. These factors led to a $700 million improvement in the bottom line compared to December guidance, with significant advancements in EBITDA per ALBD and ROIC towards the 2026 SEA Change targets.
By the end of 2024, the company had achieved an ROIC of 11%, surpassing the cost of capital and demonstrating long-term value creation for shareholders. Looking ahead to 2025, the year is projected to be another strong one, with yield growth expected to exceed 4% and outpace historical rates, contributing over $400 million to the bottom line. Booking trends have been positive, with higher volumes at increased prices compared to last year, indicating sustained demand for future sailings.
The booking windows for North American and European segments are at their longest on record, showcasing high occupancy and pricing levels for the upcoming year. With limited inventory available for 2025 sailings, customers and trade partners are encouraged to secure their bookings early. The success of 2024 results and future bookings is attributed to the strong demand and strategic initiatives implemented by the company.
Improved execution has been achieved across our brands, operating on a same-ship basis. While new ships are indeed exciting, we saw the introduction of three remarkable vessels in 2024. Carnival Jubilee, part of the Excel-class fleet for Carnival Cruise Line, is now sailing proudly from Texas. Sun Princess, Princess Cruises’ flagship, was recognized as Condé Nast Traveler’s 2024 Megaship of the Year. Lastly, Queen Anne, Cunard’s first ship in 14 years, joined their renowned fleet. Despite the allure of new ships, the majority of our yield growth in 2024 came from enhanced demand for existing ships. Even without the new additions, our yields increased by nearly 10% compared to 2023.
This success is attributed to our focus on improving execution across our commercial space through talent investment and targeted marketing campaigns. By understanding each brand’s unique market and tailoring our efforts accordingly, we have attracted new cruise guests and retained loyal ones. Our marketing initiatives have boosted web traffic and search results, surpassing our capacity growth and maintaining a steady demand flow. Additionally, our yield management techniques have optimized booking curves, leading to higher ticket prices and onboard spending.
We are not stopping here and have plans to launch new marketing campaigns for all our brands, with each one tailored to enhance awareness and consideration for cruise travel globally. Furthermore, we are developing an enhanced destination strategy to provide guests with more reasons to choose a cruise vacation with us. While we have a strong presence in the Caribbean, we see potential to further capitalize on our owned destinations and create demand for these exceptional experiences.
Exciting times lie ahead as we continue to innovate and grow in the cruise industry.
As we embark on our multiyear strategy, we are excited about the upcoming opening of Celebration Key in just under six months. This destination will be our largest and most Carnival-centric addition yet, offering five distinct portals designed for fun, catering to a range of experiences from family-friendly to exclusive beach club offerings. Celebration Key will not only be the closest destination in our portfolio, cutting down on fuel costs and emissions, but it will also be accessible exclusively through our cruises. Additionally, we recently announced a shift in our destination asset strategy with the transformation of Half Moon Cay into RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay. This rebranding aims to better capture the essence of the idyllic tropical paradise that guests can expect to enjoy, complete with enhanced beachfront experiences, dining venues, bars, and other features that emphasize the natural beauty of the destination. The new pier on the North side, scheduled for completion in November 2026, will allow ships, including Carnival’s Excel-class vessels, to dock at the island for the first time. We are eager to showcase these Caribbean gems to consumers, encouraging guests to explore these exclusive destinations only available through our brands. Many of our Carnival Cruise Lines itineraries will feature both RelaxAway, Half Moon Cay and Celebration Key, offering guests complementary experiences that blend relaxation and ultimate beach stays. By developing and promoting these unique assets, we aim to attract new-to-cruise demand and cultivate guest loyalty while enhancing the overall guest experience. We are also committed to sustainability efforts, having achieved a 17.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity compared to 2019, on track to reach our target of 20% reduction by the end of 2026. Despite our growth since 2019, we have managed to lower absolute greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 10%. Financially, we have made significant strides in reducing debt, with over $8 billion paid off our peak debt and interest expenses lowered, strengthening our leverage metrics. Our 2025 guidance positions us at 3.8 times net debt to EBITDA, nearing our goal of reaching investment-grade leverage metrics by 2026. We appreciate the hard work of our team members in driving improvement in 2024, setting the stage for a successful 2025 and beyond.
We extend our heartfelt gratitude to our travel agent partners for their invaluable contribution to our success. We also want to express our appreciation to our loyal guests, investors, destination partners, and stakeholders for their unwavering support. Our main focus has always been on delivering unforgettable happiness to over 13.5 million people in 2024 through extraordinary cruise vacations while upholding the integrity of the oceans, places we visit, and lives we touch.
Now, I’ll hand it over to David Bernstein, our Chief Financial Officer, to provide an overview of our 2024 fourth quarter results. David will also update us on our efforts in refinancing and deleveraging, followed by insights into our 2025 full-year December guidance.
In summary, our fourth quarter results exceeded expectations, with net income surpassing guidance by $126 million. This outperformance was driven by favorable revenue of $77 million, primarily due to increased ticket prices and onboard spending. Cruise costs per available lower-berth day rose by 7.4%, better than expected, contributing $13 million to the positive outcome. Additionally, improvements in interest expense, other income and expenses, and tax expenses led to a $38 million enhancement.
Our per diems improved by over 5% compared to the previous year, setting records in revenues, yields, per diems, adjusted EBITDA, and customer deposits. Our focus on yield improvement, with an 11% increase in 2024, led to enhanced margins and cash flow, enabling us to reduce debt significantly. By the end of 2024, we had lowered our debt to $27.5 billion, a significant decrease from the peak in January 2023.
Our leverage metrics have shown remarkable progress, with a 4.3 times net debt-to-EBITDA ratio achieved in 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, we are strategically managing our debt profile and maturity towers to take advantage of improved interest rates. Our goal is to continue on the path to achieving investment-grade leverage metrics through proactive refinancing and deleveraging efforts.
Thank you for your attention, and now I’ll provide some insights into our 2025 full-year plans.
In December of the previous year, we provided guidance for 2025. Following an 11% growth in yield in 2024, we anticipate a further improvement in yield for 2025, with a projected increase of around 4.2%, equivalent to over $0.60 per share compared to the previous year. This growth is primarily attributed to higher ticket prices, increased onboard spending, and slightly higher occupancy rates on both sides of the Atlantic. We are well-equipped to raise ticket prices in 2025 due to a lower inventory remaining compared to the previous year.
Moving on to costs, cruise costs excluding fuel per ALBD are expected to rise by approximately 3.7%, amounting to $0.28 per share for 2025 compared to 2024. We are excited about the upcoming launch of Celebration Key in July 2025, which we believe will be a popular destination for our guests and yield a positive return on investment. However, operating expenses related to Celebration Key will impact our cost comparisons by around 0.5%.
Additionally, we anticipate 687 dry dock days in 2025, a 17% increase from 2024, which will impact cost comparisons by approximately 0.75%. Other factors contributing to the 2.2-point increase in cruise costs include inflation, higher advertising expenses, and adjustments in depreciation and interest expenses. The net impact of these factors on earnings per share is estimated to be $0.04.
The effect of fuel prices and currency fluctuations is expected to have a favorable impact of around $0.04 per share in 2025. Fuel prices are expected to be favorable by $0.09 per share, while changes in foreign currency exchange rates are expected to decrease earnings by $0.05 per share. The increase in EUA costs due to regulations is anticipated to affect fuel expenses by $0.03 per share.
Overall, our net income guidance for 2025 exceeds $2.3 billion, reflecting an improvement of over $400 million compared to 2024, or $0.28 per share. Strong demand for our brands and effective operational strategies are driving these positive financial results. We are also confident in achieving investment-grade leverage metrics in the coming years as we continue to strengthen our financial position and create value for our shareholders.
Can you discuss the current developments and strategies planned for ’25 and beyond? With ’25 shaping up as a promising year, what initiatives are being implemented throughout the organization to boost market share, optimize revenue, and enhance onboard spending?Josh Weinstein, who serves as President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Climate Officer, highlighted the company’s recent restructuring efforts and the appointment of capable brand leaders. These leaders have been instrumental in driving growth across the organization’s diverse brands.
On the commercial front, there has been a strong focus on revenue management and marketing strategies to attract customers and drive bookings. Increased advertising investments have helped align the company with market standards and foster stronger relationships with trade partners. Portfolio management has also been a key priority, with adjustments made to ship allocations to maximize returns and support brand growth.
Looking ahead to 2025, the company plans to build on these foundations by further enhancing commercial strategies and empowering brand leaders. Investments are being made in talent and technology to optimize revenue management and drive onboard spending. The destination strategy is expected to provide continued growth opportunities, while efforts to increase onboard spending are showing promising results.
In terms of cost breakdown, Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein discussed the factors contributing to the 3.7% increase in net cruise costs excluding fuel for the current year. These factors include expenses related to Celebration Key, dry dock days, and inflation. Bernstein also highlighted the impact of one-time items in 2024. Looking ahead, a balanced approach between yields and cruise costs will be crucial for sustainable growth over the coming years.
As mentioned, a 3.7% increase in performance was driven by various factors, including efficiency initiatives and leveraging our scale company-wide. These four key components contributed to the overall growth. There is no specific rule of thumb regarding the difference, but we believe we can sustain this progress. In 2024, there was a significant improvement, mainly due to a recovery story. Our guidance indicates a slight difference between yield improvement and cost reduction, with a greater emphasis on yield. We will continue to focus on cost management while investing in advertising, revenue management, and destination strategies to enhance margins further.
Analyst Matthew Boss provided insightful commentary, and the operator thanked him before introducing the next question from Ben Chaiken of Mizuho Securities. Ben inquired about the customer awareness of Celebration Key, a new offering opening later this summer, and whether it is well-received by customers. CEO Josh Weinstein clarified that awareness is still building as the product is not yet available. He expressed confidence in the positive response and anticipates a surge in interest once operations commence.
Ben’s follow-up question pertained to the enhanced destination strategy mentioned in the release. He sought clarification on whether this strategy is related to Celebration Key or indicates additional opportunities for unique Carnival-owned destinations. Josh explained that the strategy involves transforming existing destinations into compelling experiences that attract both cruisers and non-cruisers. By highlighting the exclusivity and excellence of these destinations, Carnival aims to differentiate itself in the market. While discussing specific locations like Half Moon Cay and Celebration Key, the focus remains on elevating awareness and appeal to drive vacation decisions towards cruising.
It is a stunning destination, one of the most beautiful in the world. However, if you’re not a cruiser, it may not be on your radar. We aim to change that with RelaxAway, offering a different experience that captures the essence of cruising. We emphasize the natural beauty, distinct from Celebration Key, which is all about the ultimate beach day. RelaxAway embodies an idyllic tropical paradise, offering a unique and exclusive experience. By combining these different vibes, guests on our cruises can enjoy diverse and exclusive experiences. We are excited about enhancing our offerings and creating a more exclusive collection of destinations. While it’s early days, we are optimistic about the possibilities.
Benjamin Chaiken — Analyst
Very helpful. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Steve Wieczynski from Stifel. Your line is now live.
Steven Wieczynski — Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Happy holidays. Based on strong pricing momentum across geographies and high booking levels for next year, the 4% yield guidance for 2025 may be conservative. Can you provide insight into the factors behind this forecast? It seems you may be cautious about onboard trends and close-in pricing opportunities. Reflecting on last year’s outperformance compared to initial guidance, what did you underestimate for 2024?
Josh Weinstein — President, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer
We appreciate your insights, Steve. Our aim is to offer guidance based on available information, with the goal of meeting and surpassing expectations. Last year’s outperformance was exceptional, and we have a solid understanding of our current position, especially as we’ve quickly regained full occupancy levels. Enhanced onboard spending has been positive, and we are focused on maintaining this trend. The 4.2% yield guidance includes considerations for occupancy and pricing strategies. We are in a more stable position compared to last year, with a strong emphasis on price improvements.
With a slight increase in occupancy, the price will be adjusted accordingly. This involves both ticket sales and onboard spending. We are committed to maximizing revenue and share the same goal with you. – Steven Wieczynski, Analyst
Great insights on Slide 17, Josh. Regarding SEA Change, achieving the EBITDA per ALBD target by 2025 looks promising. Considering the ROIC and carbon reduction targets, it might be worth setting new long-term financial goals. Establishing clear targets like SEA Change can provide a solid foundation for investors. Any thoughts on future opportunities? – Josh Weinstein, President, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer
Setting long-term financial targets is essential for our team and investors. It helps guide our trajectory and motivates us to achieve our goals. We plan to announce new targets when the time is right, possibly after catching our breath post-SEA Change milestones. – Josh Weinstein
Regarding cost trends, we anticipate higher dry dock days in the second quarter, leading to slightly higher costs. The third quarter is expected to follow suit, while the fourth quarter may see a decrease. These forecasts are subject to adjustments based on business decisions. – David Bernstein, CFO
Thank you and happy holidays! – David Bernstein
Operator: Next question from Robin Farley at UBS. Any updates on Celebration Key’s impact on guidance or potential upside? – Robin Farley, Analyst
Could you please provide more information on the additional costs for ticket prices or onboard spending at Celebration Key? We are interested in understanding the impact on yield guidance. Specifically, how much of an increase or decrease are we seeing in yield guidance for this destination? Your cruise cost guidance is currently at 50 basis points, but we would like to know the specific impact on yield guidance. Thank you for your insights.
Josh Weinstein — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Climate Officer: Thank you, Robin. I can provide some context on the significance of Celebration Key in our operations this year. It represents only 5% of our total sailings in 2025, which is relatively low. However, as we move into 2026 with a full year run rate, the impact will increase to over 15%, making it more meaningful for the company overall. While I cannot disclose specific numbers, I can confirm that our bookings for Carnival in the fourth quarter are meeting our premium expectations, which is positive to see.
Robin Farley — Analyst: That’s great to hear. In addition to this, I wanted to inquire about the $3 billion in callable debt next year and the potential interest cost savings associated with refinancing. Could we potentially see an upside of $0.20 to $0.25 in annual interest expense savings if the debt is refinanced at lower rates?
David Bernstein — Chief Financial Officer: A $0.20 to $0.25 savings would translate to $280 million given our current rates. We are looking at refinancing opportunities for the double-digit interest rate debt that is callable in the first half of the year. While we have factored in some interest savings in our forecast, the actual savings will depend on market conditions. We aim to capitalize on refinancing opportunities to reduce our interest expenses throughout the year.
Robin Farley — Analyst: Thank you for the information.
Operator: Thank you. Next question is from James Hardiman from Citi. Your line is open.
James Hardiman — Analyst: Good morning. I am interested in understanding the factors driving the organic growth within the industry and your company. How much of this growth can be attributed to industry trends versus internal initiatives? I am curious about the sustainability of this organic growth moving forward.
Josh Weinstein — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Climate Officer: While the industry’s mainstream growth is beneficial, our focus on same-ship sales has been a significant driver of our organic growth. The alignment of industry trends with our brand initiatives is positive, but the emphasis on enhancing our offerings and customer experience is key to sustaining this growth.
Our ship has a unique history of growth rates on revenue that are below those of our cruise competitors. However, we are optimistic about the future trajectory of our company, especially considering the potential for increased pricing of our experiences compared to both our cruise competitors and land-based offerings. We believe there is significant room for improvement in the price-to-experience ratio compared to land competitors.
Furthermore, it is encouraging to see other companies, like Disney, recognizing the value of investing in cruising. This alignment with industry trends gives us confidence in our strategy moving forward.
In terms of financial performance, we have seen per diems increase, with guidance indicating a slight dip in yield for the upcoming year. However, we anticipate that new developments, such as Celebration Key, will contribute to acceleration in the latter part of the year.
Regarding potential challenges affecting per diems, we remain transparent and acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding future waves of change in the industry. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as needed.
If you have any more questions or concerns, please feel free to ask.
Over the past few weeks, we were not consulted on the matter at hand. It is evident to me that no one was involved in the decision-making process when this was approved. While I hold a great deal of respect for the president and her initiatives, it is clear that there was a lack of accurate information, forethought, and consideration of the implications of the proposals being made.
Traditionally, cruises have been preferred over individuals flying into Mexico and staying for extended periods due to historical reasons. The implementation of the proposed tax has already been postponed to July 1st, but we are not content with this delay. We aim to engage in constructive dialogue with the government to highlight the substantial benefits our industry brings to Mexico. By making minor adjustments to itineraries, we can effectively eliminate the negative effects of the proposed tax.
We are actively involved in ongoing discussions and hope to have further talks in the new year, although a resolution has not been reached yet. There are no immediate plans for changes related to the tax for the upcoming year. Looking ahead to 2025, if the tax were to be implemented and no alterations were made to our operations, it would impact less than 5% of our itineraries for that year.
Analyst Patrick Scholes: Thank you for the information. The situation seems dynamic. I have a follow-up question regarding the growth rates of passenger ticket revenues compared to commissions, transportation, and other revenues. In recent quarters, these growth rates have generally been aligned. However, the most recent quarter saw a noticeable increase in passenger ticket revenue percentages surpassing commissions. Are you observing a shift towards more direct bookings or any other significant trends?
Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein: Patrick, let’s discuss this further after the call. I believe there was a slight difference in the percentages, but we can clarify that later. As for other trends, nothing significant to report at the moment.
Analyst Patrick Scholes: Understood. Thank you for the clarification.
Operator: Thank you. We have a question from David Katz at Jefferies. Please proceed with your inquiry.
Analyst David Katz: Good afternoon. Thank you for addressing many topics already. I am interested in understanding the cost dynamics and potential for improvements within that area. What factors could lead to better outcomes in managing cost increases relative to your guidance? And I have a quick follow-up question.
Chief Financial Officer David Bernstein: Regarding the full-year outlook of a 3.7% increase, our focus is on identifying efficiencies and enhancing their impact. While we have incorporated certain assumptions into our guidance, the key variable is the extent to which we can optimize our operations. We are continually exploring avenues for improvement and strive to surpass our expectations, building on the successes of the previous year.
It is challenging to accurately predict the timing and inflation rates of various items. Forecasting is inherently imperfect, as there are always uncertainties and variables at play. While we strive to make the most informed decisions based on available data, it is inevitable that some projections may deviate from reality.
Regarding leverage, our current focus is on achieving investment-grade metrics, specifically aiming for a three and a half times ratio. While there is no set target of achieving a leverage ratio of two times or better at this time, we are open to discussions about the optimal balance between strengthening our balance sheet, investing in the company, and enhancing shareholder returns. The ultimate goal is to maintain a solid investment-grade rating, although the specific strategies and timelines for achieving this remain to be determined.
As for managing demand and pricing strategies, we are actively selling bookings for 2025 and 2026, with a recent record in booking activity for the later year. Our brands are working to optimize revenue management and booking patterns, considering factors such as bundling, promotions, and pricing to shape the booking curve effectively. Each brand may approach the wave season differently, adjusting their strategies based on individual circumstances and objectives.
Discussing promotions in the cruise industry, it is noted that promotions are a common practice to generate interest in cruising, particularly during critical periods. However, it is important to consider the effectiveness of these promotions, as past efforts resulted in only an 11% yield. Despite this, the use of promotional tactics and tools is seen as a necessary part of the process.
Looking at the longer-term strategic aspect, there are investments being made beyond newbuild projects like Celebration Key, Half Moon Cay, and AIDA Evolution. These investments aim to enhance brand-building and support improved returns. While specific financial figures for future investments are not provided, it is emphasized that the ongoing investments are intended to drive positive outcomes.
Regarding destination development, unique projects like Celebration Key and Half Moon Cay require significant investment, while other destinations in the portfolio will also see improvements over time. The focus is on enhancing the passenger experience and maximizing returns, with potential for continued expansion in the future.
In conclusion, the strategic approach involves a balance between short-term promotional activities and long-term investments in brand-building and destination development to drive sustainable growth and returns.
Sure, here is the rewritten text:
Host: “We will now take one final question as we approach the end of the hour.”
Operator: “Our last question comes from Brandt Montour at Barclays. Brandt, you’re now on the line.”
Brandt Montour — Analyst: “Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on today’s results. I wanted to ask about the booking curve, Josh. When comparing this year’s bookings to last year’s at the same time, do you see any differences in pricing or tougher comparisons?”
Josh Weinstein — President, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer: “It’s definitely tougher comparisons this year compared to last. Our brands have shown higher occupancy and pricing across all quarters, indicating positive momentum. While it may not fully answer your question, we will continue to monitor and update as needed.”
Brandt Montour — Analyst: “Thank you. Regarding the impact of the Red Sea last year, how much of that impact do you expect to recover in 2025 and how might it affect comparisons?”
Josh Weinstein — President, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer: “After analysis, the impact was likely less than $100 million for 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, there won’t be a significant bounce back due to our proactive adjustments earlier this year. It’s a different scenario compared to last year but we have factored it into our numbers.”
Brandt Montour — Analyst: “Understood. Thank you for the insights. Congratulations once again.”
Josh Weinstein — President, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer: “Thank you, Brandt. Wishing everyone a happy holiday season and a successful 2025. Thank you all for joining today.”
Operator: “Thank you for participating. [Operator signoff]”
Christopher Sheehan – Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Josh Weinstein – President, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Climate Officer
David Bernstein – Chief Financial Officer
Matthew Boss – Analyst
Benjamin Chaiken – Analyst
Ben Chaiken – Analyst
Steven Wieczynski – Analyst
Steve Wieczynski – Analyst
Robin Farley – Analyst
James Hardiman – Analyst
Patrick Scholes – Analyst
David Katz – Analyst
Jaime Katz – Morgan Stanley – Analyst
Brandt Montour – Analyst
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