Texas has been experiencing a significant dry spell since the fall of 2024, particularly in West Texas where the drought has been severe and enduring. While the extreme and exceptional drought conditions are not likely to dissipate entirely, there is some relief in sight.
The upcoming week will start off relatively dry, with isolated thunderstorms expected in southeast Texas and far South Texas on Monday. Tuesday is forecasted to be dry across the entire state during daylight hours.
By Tuesday night, a low-pressure system will form along a stationary front in North Texas, leading to the development of rain that may persist into Wednesday before tapering off by evening. This system will be separate from another storm set to impact different areas of Texas starting Wednesday night.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to originate in Mexico and move into regions near the Rio Grande River and South Texas by late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. The slow movement of this storm will result in prolonged rainfall.
“Although the anticipated rain will provide some relief, it will only make a small dent in the long-standing drought. Multiple similar events would be needed to significantly alleviate the dry conditions,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Grady Gilman.
While exact rainfall amounts remain uncertain, areas experiencing the heaviest and most persistent rain could see around 1-2 inches. Various atmospheric factors will converge to generate this precipitation.
“Incoming atmospheric energy from the Southwest colliding with moisture from the Gulf will trigger widespread downpours across western and South Texas on Thursday and Thursday night,” explained Gilman.
As the storm progresses slowly, the rain will expand into other regions towards the end of the week. “The downpours will gradually move eastward, reaching central and parts of North Texas as well as the ArkLaTex region by Friday and Friday night,” Gilman added.
Even areas that receive minimal rainfall will benefit from increased humidity, reducing the risk of wildfires. The storm is expected to exit Texas by Saturday, potentially evolving into a more powerful system with snow, ice, and severe weather as it moves northeastward over the weekend.
