The upcoming Trump administration could leverage its position to ensure that Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) demonstrates its commitment as a legitimate player in the Syrian landscape and no longer poses a threat to US or regional security, according to Idlbi’s analysis for the Atlantic Council. This objective can be achieved through constructive dialogue with Turkey, which has historically been at odds with the Assad regime.
On a separate note, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently acknowledged direct communication with HTS, marking the first public confirmation of such contact between the US government and the group. Blinken disclosed this information during a press conference in Jordan, emphasizing that the dialogue was conducted directly with HTS and other relevant parties. However, he provided no specific details regarding the timing or level of engagement. Notably, engaging with a designated terrorist organization does not pose a legal obstacle.
In a significant development, HTS’s leader, Jolani, expressed dissent against the persistent terror designation during an exclusive interview with CNN in an undisclosed location in Syria. Jolani criticized the label as primarily driven by political motives and asserted its inaccuracy. He highlighted that HTS distanced itself from extremist Islamist practices early on, leading to a rupture with jihadist groups engaging in brutal tactics. Jolani also emphasized that he personally refrained from targeting civilians in any attacks.
The potential revision of the terror designation remains uncertain, and the status of existing sanctions imposed on the former regime is also unclear. When questioned about the impact of the terror designation on US engagement with the rebel group and the likelihood of its removal, a senior State Department official emphasized the importance of monitoring HTS’s actions on the ground. The official expressed hope that HTS’s statements would translate into tangible positive actions.
Syria has endured severe economic repercussions due to longstanding Western sanctions, with the US’ Caesar Act in 2019 imposing extensive restrictions on entities supporting Assad’s military operations. The Act effectively isolated Syria’s economy, leading to a drastic contraction, as reported by the World Bank, which indicated a more than 50% decline in the country’s economy from 2010 to 2020.
The economic fallout has been devastating for the Syrian population, with poverty affecting a vast majority. World Bank data from 2022 revealed that 69% of Syrians were grappling with poverty, while over a quarter faced extreme poverty. The situation likely worsened following a destructive earthquake in February 2023.
Idlbi underscored that while the downfall of the Assad regime presents an opportunity, it is not a guaranteed solution and could potentially exacerbate instability if not managed with caution. Both the Biden and Trump administrations are urged to pursue a balanced and strategic approach, prioritizing inclusive governance, humanitarian aid, and regional stability to navigate the complex landscape in Syria effectively.
