An artist’s depiction of the Soviet spacecraft Venera 9, similar to the Kosmos-482 lander, on the surface of Venus. (Image credit: Mark Garlick / Science Photo Library via Getty Images)
A Soviet spacecraft from the past, the Kosmos-482, is returning to Earth uncontrolled, yet experts assure there is minimal cause for concern. Initially intended to land on Venus, this half-ton craft has remained in Earth’s orbit for the past 53 years due to a rocket malfunction. Forecasts now indicate that the spacecraft is due to re-enter the atmosphere in the upcoming days, with expected uncontrolled re-entry occurring on Saturday.
The notion of a sizable metal object re-entering Earth’s atmosphere may appear alarming, but according to the European Space Agency (ESA), space debris like old satellites or spent rocket components routinely fall back to Earth without causing harm. Most often, these spacecraft burn up harmlessly upon re-entry, with very few surviving the fiery descent. In rare instances when debris does persist, the likelihood of it causing damage on land is minimal, largely due to the vast ocean coverage on our planet.
ESA officials stress that the chance of injury from satellite re-entry is extremely remote, with the annual risk of an individual being harmed by space debris estimated to be less than 1 in 100 billion. In comparison, the likelihood of being struck by lightning is significantly higher at about 65,000 times.
Forecasts from ESA’s Space Debris Office project the re-entry of Kosmos-482 around 4:26 a.m. ET on Saturday, with an estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 4.35 hours. The precise timing of such events is challenging to predict due to atmospheric variables, space weather, and the object’s orbit orientation as it degrades.
As Kosmos-482 draws nearer to re-entry, scientists will refine predictions, but the exact landing location remains uncertain. Potential landing zones, according to NASA, could span between latitudes 52 N and 52 S, encompassing regions across Africa, Australia, North and South America, Europe, and Asia.
While Space Force authorities suggest a re-entry over Borneo in Malaysia, near Indonesia’s border, ESA’s data places the landing site in the Southern Ocean south of Australia. Launched by the Soviet Union in 1972 to reach Venus, Kosmos-482 encountered an orbital mishap, leading to its stranding around Earth.
Most remnants of the mission have already re-entered Earth’s atmosphere, except for the spherical landing capsule weighing half a ton, anticipated to return this weekend. Designed to withstand Venus’s extreme conditions, there is a possibility it may survive re-entry and impact Earth’s surface, according to Marco Langbroek from Delft University of Technology, who has been monitoring the craft and providing updates online.
The latest update on Thursday indicates that there may be a significant impact expected: The parachute deployment system is unlikely to function after 53 years with dead batteries. However, this does not imply that individuals on the ground will face immediate danger. The potential risks are moderate, though not negligible, as the object weighs just under 500 kg and has a size of 1 meter. The level of risk is somewhat comparable to that of encountering a meteorite impact, as stated by the source.
