Ukraine is set to be a significant challenge for President Trump in his second term. During his campaign, Trump pledged to swiftly resolve the conflict and emphasized a positive rapport with the Russian leader as a key to achieving lasting peace. However, as events unfold, fulfilling this promise may prove challenging for the president-elect. The situation in Ukraine marks the initial, but not the final, point of contention with Russia that the incoming administration must confront.
Trump and Putin’s relationship has been a subject of much discussion, particularly regarding Putin’s involvement in the 2016 election. While the two leaders publicly expressed admiration for one another, their actions did not always align. For instance, in 2018, Trump approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine against Russia’s objections and imposed sanctions on Moscow for the Nord 2 pipeline project. Conversely, Trump delayed a larger aid package to Ukraine, leading to his first impeachment. Critics highlight Trump’s skepticism of NATO and its implications for Russia. Leading up to the 2024 election, Putin hinted at preferring Biden’s victory before mentioning Harris, though this may have been a strategic move to undermine support for the Democratic candidate. Despite a seemingly congenial rapport, the transactional nature of Trump and Putin’s diplomacy is likely to create tensions.
In April 2024, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and former CIA analyst Fred Fleitz proposed a peace deal for Ukraine. Kellogg, who served as a national security advisor in Trump’s first term, will act as the president-elect’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Fleitz also has ties to the former administration. Trump is open to their plan, which involves using American aid to enforce an immediate ceasefire. If Ukraine engages in sincere discussions, the US will provide aid to prevent further territorial losses; otherwise, aid will be withdrawn. Should Russia refuse negotiations, the US will support Ukraine. A roadmap for lifting sanctions on Russia in exchange for compliance is also part of the proposal. The report suggests addressing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations by deferring ascension and establishing a demilitarized zone. Ukraine’s territorial goals will be pursued through diplomacy rather than military means.
As of December 2024, Russia has been gradually gaining ground in the conflict. Transitioning from a failed rapid victory strategy, Moscow has adopted a slower, incremental approach. Despite unsuccessful attempts to divert Russian forces with the Kursk gambit, retaining territory could be a valuable bargaining tool for Ukraine. However, Putin might hesitate to begin peace talks now that Russia holds the advantage. With Ukraine facing manpower shortages and Russia bolstering its troops with external support, any agreement under current circumstances is unlikely to favor Kyiv.
