AccuWeather meteorologists are warning that a significant severe weather and tornado event is expected to unfold, potentially becoming the most significant of the year so far. Dangerous and life-threatening conditions are forecasted to impact numerous states across a vast area spanning over 500,000 square miles and home to more than 100 million people in the central and southern United States.
This multi-day severe weather event is forecasted to occur from Friday to Sunday, moving eastward each day from the Great Plains to the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys, as well as the southern and central Appalachians, and the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Unusually, the northern extent of the severe weather is anticipated early in the season, with areas that recently experienced snowfall and subfreezing temperatures potentially returning to those conditions after the storm system passes. States at risk include portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan.
The primary cause of damage from the thunderstorms is expected to be powerful wind gusts, leading to incidents such as downed trees, power lines, and property damage. Additionally, some of the stronger thunderstorms may produce hail up to the size of marbles and golf balls, with larger hail possible in a few of the most severe storms. Torrential downpours could also result in reduced visibility for motorists, urban flooding, and ponding on poorly drained highways.
Major cities such as St. Louis, Chicago, Nashville, New Orleans, and Atlanta, as well as numerous rural communities, are at risk from this severe weather threat. Tornadoes are a significant concern, with the risk extending into the nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday. The number of tornadoes that may occur during this outbreak is difficult to predict but could be substantial if conditions align favorably.
AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring the factors that contribute to tornado formation, such as warmth, moisture, jet stream energy, and wind shear. The potential for tornadoes may be highest in parts of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, and northern Arkansas on Friday. The severe weather threat zone is forecasted to extend from the central and eastern Great Lakes on Saturday to the central Gulf Coast.
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Moist air interacting the most may center around the area spanning from central Kentucky through much of Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi to western Georgia, the western part of the Florida Panhandle, and the southeastern part of Louisiana. This region could see multiple significantly strong tornadoes touching down for more than a few minutes.
Severe weather is expected to reach the Atlantic coast on Sunday. Typically, as severe weather moves from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast, the threat may become more “linear” by Sunday, with the focus on a line or two of thunderstorms carrying strong straight-line wind gusts and heavy downpours.
As these storms develop and move through the busy Interstate 75, 77, 81, and 95 corridors, as well as major airport hubs from Charlotte to Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City, significant travel disruptions, including flight delays and cancellations, are possible.
There is a renewed flooding risk for Kentucky and surrounding states. Although water levels in streams and rivers have decreased since the mid-February deluge, the ground remains moist and could quickly respond to heavy rainfall. Areas in Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, and Tennessee, as well as parts of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and the Carolinas, may experience 1-3 inches of rain within 12 hours from Saturday to Sunday. While streams and rivers may handle this amount of rainfall, a storm system stall could lead to heavier rain in a short period.
Residents and travelers near small streams and low-lying areas along unprotected river flatlands should be prepared to take action. For advanced, ad-free safety alerts, consider subscribing to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app to receive hyperlocal severe weather alerts from expert meteorologists monitoring dangerous weather risks 24/7.
