A strong area of low pressure is expected to create a dangerous outbreak of severe thunderstorms in parts of the Midwest, South, and East. Tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding are all potential concerns.
Overview:
The storm system responsible for this severe weather event is currently moving into the Western region. It will progress through the central and eastern states over Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, posing a threat of severe weather each day. There may be instances of overnight severe weather, so it is important to know in advance where your safe shelter is and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
Friday-Friday Night Forecast:
– Areas at risk: Much of the Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley, highlighted by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Cities like St. Louis, Paducah, Memphis, and Jackson are in the high-risk zone.
– Timing: Severe storms are likely to develop in the afternoon in the western regions and move eastward throughout the evening and overnight.
– Threats: Intense damaging wind gusts, tornadoes (potentially EF2 or stronger), and large hail could accompany severe storms.
Saturday-Saturday Night Forecast:
– Areas at risk: The Deep South, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and western Florida Panhandle. Cities like Atlanta, Birmingham, and New Orleans are in the high-risk zone.
– Timing: Severe storms could occur in the morning and intensify in the afternoon and evening, extending northward to Ohio and western Pennsylvania.
– Threats: Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding are all concerns.
Sunday’s Forecast:
– Areas at risk: Mid-Atlantic states to the Southeast, including Charleston, Raleigh, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.
– Timing: Ongoing storms in the morning may intensify into the afternoon, with the potential for severe weather to persist.
– Threats: Damaging winds, tornadoes, and other severe weather hazards may continue.
Sunday’s Severe Weather Forecast
Concerns primarily revolve around gusty winds, with a slight chance of isolated tornadoes. There is also a possibility of localized flash flooding in some areas.
Classic Weather Setup
The weather pattern resembles a typical setup for March and the upcoming spring season, characterized by a sharp dip in the jet stream moving from the West towards the central and eastern regions. Simultaneously, energy from the jet stream contributes to the development of a potent low-pressure system along a cold front, pulling in moisture from the Gulf. This combination of factors sets the stage for the formation of numerous thunderstorms, a few of which may rotate and spawn tornadoes, along with widespread damaging winds and hail.
