An analysis conducted by the BBC has uncovered that over 95,000 individuals fighting for the Russian military have lost their lives as the conflict in Ukraine stretches into its fourth year.
This count does not encompass those who perished while serving in the militia of the self-proclaimed Donbas republics, a number estimated to be between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters.
Since February 2022, BBC Russian, the independent media group Mediazona, and volunteers have been meticulously chronicling these fatalities.
The compiled list includes verified information about the deceased sourced from official reports, newspapers, social media, as well as newly erected memorials and graves. Yet, it is believed that the true extent of the death toll is significantly higher.
One such individual was Daniil Dudnikov, a 21-year-old history student at Donetsk National University with a penchant for international relations and swimming.
On the fateful day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Daniil was forcibly conscripted by the authorities of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and deployed to the Kharkiv region.
Tragically, just a month later, on March 25, Daniil was reported missing in action. Out of the 18 soldiers in his unit, none returned. Thirteen were confirmed deceased, and five were taken captive. After a harrowing four months and a prisoner exchange, those who survived disclosed that Daniil was among the 13 soldiers who perished in combat.
Daniil’s narrative mirrors that of countless other residents hailing from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, which were established in 2014 by Moscow-backed separatists in the Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine.
The full-scale Russian incursion in 2022 saw a massive conscription of civilian men, often ill-equipped and inadequately trained, leading to perilous missions and a staggering number of casualties and missing soldiers whose fate remains shrouded in uncertainty for months or even years.
According to our examination of obituaries and missing persons reports from the affected regions, a large portion of the deaths in the Donbass militias occurred during the initial year of the invasion, a toll comparable to the total number of confirmed Russian military fatalities during the same period—25,769 deaths.
Despite many individuals in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine having connections to Russia, their losses are less “visible” to ordinary Russians due to the lack of integration into the country’s daily life.
Moreover, a significant portion of Russian casualties comprises convicts enlisted from penitentiaries.
One such case is that of Ildus Sadykov, who was 59 when he was apprehended for theft at a Moscow railway station. A recurrent offender, Ildus had previously served a cumulative 16 years in prison for various crimes.
Recalling his recruitment ordeal,
In a stark revelation concerning the toll of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it has come to light that approximately one-third of Russia’s military casualties over the past three years may have been individuals incarcerated in the nation’s correctional facilities. These prisoners, largely isolated from mainstream society for extended periods, are believed to represent a significant portion of the lives lost in the conflict.
Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, the director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London, pointed out that these losses disproportionately impact segments of Russian society with limited resources in terms of education, finances, and political influence. She suggests that the Kremlin’s recruitment of prisoners and foreign mercenaries may be a deliberate strategy to shield more privileged sectors of society from the direct consequences of war.
The realities of the conflict are starkly contrasted between different segments of the population. While only 30% of Russians have had direct exposure to the war, whether through personal involvement or familial connections to combatants, a staggering 80% of Ukrainians report knowing someone affected by the conflict.
Public opinion on the war in Russia remains a complex and sensitive issue, with many individuals hesitant to express their true sentiments. A study conducted by the PROPA project in collaboration with the University of Helsinki indicated that 43% of surveyed Russians openly supported the invasion. The reluctance of many to openly discuss or criticize the war indicates a broader societal reticence to engage in public discourse on the conflict.
The true extent of Russia’s military losses is shrouded in uncertainty, with official figures significantly lower than estimates provided by military analysts. The grim reality of casualties is further obscured by the challenges of retrieving bodies from the battlefield, leaving many fallen soldiers unaccounted for in official tallies.
As the conflict enters its fourth year, international attention has turned toward efforts for peace negotiations led by the new U.S. administration. Against a backdrop of escalating casualties and ongoing military engagements, the need for a resolution to the conflict grows increasingly urgent.
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