*****GOP Senate Race Intensifies with Anti-Trump Allegations*****
The upcoming Senate primary race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn has become a highly charged contest, pitting two prominent Republicans against each other in a battle for dominance within the party. The rivalry between Paxton and Cornyn, both seeking the support of former President Donald Trump, has been ongoing for years, culminating in what is expected to be a fiercely contested election in 2026.
Cornyn, a stalwart figure in Texas politics for over three decades, has held various high-ranking positions within the Republican Party and has established himself as a key figure in Washington, D.C. In contrast, Paxton, a three-term attorney general who recently weathered a bipartisan impeachment, sees an opportunity to challenge Cornyn from the right and believes he can secure Trump’s endorsement.
With both candidates vying for Trump’s favor, the primary race has taken on a bitter tone, characterized by personal attacks and accusations. Paxton has criticized Cornyn for his past remarks about Trump and his voting record on key issues, portraying himself as the candidate more closely aligned with conservative values. Meanwhile, Cornyn has dismissed Paxton as a “con man” and questioned his motives for seeking higher office, portraying the attorney general’s bid as a self-serving endeavor.
As the campaign heats up, both candidates are actively courting Trump’s support, aware of the potential impact an endorsement could have on the outcome of the primary. The race is expected to be one of the most contentious in recent Texas political history, with both sides gearing up for a fierce battle for the Senate seat.
A battle is brewing within the Texas GOP that has resulted in the removal of legislative leaders, propelled Cruz’s ascent, sparked discussions of Paxton’s impeachment, and triggered proxy conflicts throughout the ballot.
For over a year, Paxton had been hinting at challenging Cornyn from the right. In early 2024, Paxton criticized the senator as “anti-Trump [and] anti-gun” in a post on social media, asserting that “Texans deserve another conservative Senator.” Cornyn shared the post and retorted: “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” alluding to the investigations that prompted the impeachment trial. It was reported by The Associated Press that the Justice Department chose not to prosecute Paxton for corruption allegations last year.
Brendan Steinhauser, a GOP consultant and former campaign manager for Cornyn, noted that it is unsurprising to observe Cornyn campaigning with a focus on Trump. He emphasized Cornyn’s support for the president’s initiatives, alignment on policies, and contribution to appointing judicial nominees.
While uncertainty lingers over a potential Trump endorsement, Cornyn garners support from Senate Republicans. Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has advocated for Cornyn to White House officials. Scott also informed Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas, who is contemplating a Senate bid, that the NRSC is backing Cornyn.
Commenting on Paxton’s early declaration, Mackowiak, a seasoned Texas political consultant, highlighted that the attorney general recognizes the challenge he faces in defeating Cornyn and acknowledges the significance of fundraising and overcoming the incumbent advantage. Mackowiak mentioned that Paxton’s offensive strategy might not be sustainable, and the events leading to his impeachment trial could resurface and affect the race.
“He will need to focus more on defense than he realizes. Just because he survived impeachment, it doesn’t mean those issues are resolved,” he commented. A potential complication, especially if Hunt or another Republican enters the race, is Texas’ runoff regulations. If no candidate secures the majority in the primary, the top two advance to a runoff election. Cornyn has never lost in Texas and has never faced a runoff challenge from opponents mostly on the right. However, the possibility of a divided field leading to a runoff adds another layer of complexity. Both Mackowiak and Steinhauser point out that runoff voters typically favor candidates with strong grassroots conservative support.
The Texas Senate race could have wider implications for the Senate majority battle next year as Republicans strive to maintain their narrow lead. Democrats must gain three seats to control the Senate, but face challenges with limited target opportunities. Only one Republican, Susan Collins from Maine, is running in a state won by former Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans aim to strengthen their hold by contesting Democratic-held seats in battleground states.
Cornyn warned that a competitive Texas election could strain Republicans nationally by diverting funds from other key battlegrounds. He emphasized the importance of retaining the Texas seat, potentially requiring millions of dollars that could otherwise support crucial elections in states like Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia.
The Democratic Party has long sought to flip Texas, with Beto O’Rourke almost defeating Cruz in 2018. Trump expanded his victory margin in Texas last year, winning by 14 percentage points as Cruz defeated former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by 9 points. Allred expressed interest in challenging Cornyn again, while Cruz remains neutral in the Senate primary, viewing both Paxton and Cornyn as friends and leaving the decision to Texas voters.
A contentious GOP primary could benefit Democrats, especially if Paxton becomes the nominee. Democrats are closely monitoring the Republican primary process in Texas and other states. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Maeve Coyle highlighted the challenging GOP primary in Texas and recruitment issues in New Hampshire, suggesting a potential midterm backlash driven by Republican policies. Democrats will seize opportunities to push Republicans onto the defensive front.
