On April 8, a home in Lockport, Kentucky, was flooded by the Kentucky River, as shown in a photo by Carolyn Kaster from the AP file. The recent historic rainfall and flooding in areas of Arkansas, Kentucky, and other states, brought on by intense thunderstorms in April, were more likely and severe due to climate change, according to the World Weather Attribution project. Scientists analyzed the weather events and found that the storm system from April 3 to April 6, which caused extensive flooding in the Southeast, impacted over 70 million people, resulted in at least 15 fatalities, swept away cars, and derailed a train.
Using climate models and historical data, researchers determined that the storm system was around 9% more intense and 40% more likely to occur because of global warming. Ben Clarke, a researcher from Imperial College London involved in the report, explained that the warming of 1.3 degrees Celsius has intensified extreme rainfall leading to flooding in the region, due to the atmosphere holding more moisture.
The heavy rain over several days led to severe flooding in Frankfort, Kentucky, on April 7, affecting the Midwest. Shel Winkley, a meteorologist with Climate Central, highlighted the unusual meteorological setup that contributed to the extreme rain, with a low-pressure system meeting a ridge of high pressure and stalling, causing thunderstorms to repeatedly hit the same areas. This collision of weather and climate change resulted in a significant event.
The National Weather Service issued a high number of severe weather warnings on April 2, leading to multiple severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Between April 3 and April 6, many regions received 6 to 12 inches of rain, with some areas receiving up to 16 inches. The research indicated that a storm system of similar magnitude could be expected approximately once every 100 years in today’s warmer climate.
Jerald Brotzge, Kentucky State Climatologist and professor at Western Kentucky University, who was not part of the study, acknowledged the research’s credibility, noting that it properly addressed the unique meteorological conditions that contributed to the flooding event. He commended the researchers for recognizing the specific factors at play in the weather phenomenon.
Over the past 130 years of recorded weather, the state has seen a warming trend of approximately one degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). There has also been an increase in rainfall over time. According to Brotzge, the annual rainfall has gone up by about 10%. The state’s top 10 wettest years have seen five occurrences since 2011, with 2011 being the wettest year and 2018 the second wettest. This year, the period from January through April has been noted as the wettest start to the year. World Weather Attribution is a group of scientists that conducts rapid analyses on the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. While their methods are peer-reviewed, specific analyses are not immediately reviewed. However, their previous work on heatwaves, wildfires, and hurricanes has withstood scrutiny from the academic community.
