As the year comes to a close, 2024 is set to break records as the hottest year on modern record, surpassing the previous record for the second consecutive year. Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, expressed certainty that 2024 will go down as the hottest year on record, signaling a dangerous deviation from the path needed to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change. Record warm temperatures observed globally in the first seven months of the year indicated a trend towards surpassing the previous year.
Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, noted that 2024 has maintained a temperature lead over 2023 throughout most of the year. Despite awaiting the final data for December, there is little doubt that 2024 will establish a new record for annual average temperature. Various organizations, including The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and Berkeley Earth, are set to release the final statistics on January 10 in a collaborative effort.
The January to November average temperature was the highest on record, with December showing minimal deviation from this trajectory. The Copernicus Climate Change Service has already confirmed that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, supported by data showing a continued temperature increase compared to the previous year. Scientists attribute this temperature rise to a combination of natural variability and human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions.
The impact of climate change on global temperatures was emphasized by United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who highlighted that the top 10 hottest years on record have all occurred in the past decade, labeling it as “climate breakdown in real time.” Heat records were broken both in the US and globally, with the global mean temperature exceeding previous records for 16 consecutive months from June 2023 to September 2024.
Despite occasional drops in global temperatures below 2023 levels in the latter half of the year, overall air and ocean temperatures remained above average. Data analysis by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer indicated that 2024 was marked by consistently warmer temperatures compared to the 1901-2000 average, resulting in the hottest summer on record.
Global observations and satellite data are utilized in conjunction with a computer model of the Earth to create the most accurate estimates in areas where actual observations are scarce. In November, record-high temperatures were present on approximately 10.6% of the world’s surface, marking the highest percentage since records began in 1951, while record-cold temperatures only covered about 0.4% of the Earth’s land. Asia experienced its warmest November on record in 2024.
In the United States, the first 11 months of 2024 set a new record for the warmest year-to-date period in the contiguous U.S., with an average temperature of 57.1 degrees, 3.3 degrees above the long-term average. January to November temperatures were also record-high in 22 states and among the top three warmest year-to-date periods in another 11 states. Additionally, the Gulf of Mexico experienced its warmest November on record.
Contributing factors to the high temperatures in 2024 included the lingering effects of El Niño in the tropical Pacific until April and marine heat waves in the North Pacific and North Atlantic fueled by increased greenhouse gases. Human-induced changes to the climate system, such as altered wind patterns and reduced reflective cloud cover, also played a role in the warmth observed.
Scientists are studying how rising temperatures may impact severe weather events like heat waves, hurricanes, and storms in the future. The U.S. experienced a near-record number of tornadoes in 2024, and hurricanes were active in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. More than 200 fatalities were attributed to the five hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S., marking the deadliest season on the mainland since 2005. The aftermath of these hurricanes, combined with heat waves, posed significant challenges for affected communities.
The impact of climate change on atmospheric conditions is evident, though the specific influence on hurricane activity remains a complex area of study.
Experts caution against making definitive statements about trends in hurricane intensity due to the limited timeframe of available data and natural variability between seasons. Nevertheless, a growing body of research indicates that hurricanes are exhibiting higher peak intensities and an increased frequency of rapid intensification. According to meteorologist McNoldy, while the number of storms may not necessarily be rising, those that do form are more likely to strengthen, sometimes in shorter time frames. He notes that while climate change is not the sole cause of these changes in hurricanes, it is gradually influencing their behavior on average.
Speculation arises about the possibility of 2025 setting new temperature records globally. Scientists suggest that temperatures in 2025 may not be as high as previously predicted, especially if a La Niña weather pattern emerges. History shows a similar occurrence in 2017 when global temperatures slightly decreased following three consecutive record-setting years during an intense El Niño event in 2015-2016. This resulted in 2017 being only the second hottest year on record at the time.
Climate scientist Francis acknowledges that fluctuations in temperature are natural and anticipates that 2025 could potentially be cooler. However, the World Meteorological Organization recently indicated that any La Niña event in 2025 is likely to be mild and short-lived. Despite the possibility of temporary temperature decreases, Francis emphasizes that the continued release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by human activities will sustain the overall warming trend. She underscores that each new temperature record, extreme weather event, damaged coral reef, or coastal flooding incident serves as a stark reminder of humanity’s impact on the environment, leading to more frequent, intense, and destructive occurrences.
Contributing to this report: Karina Zaiets, USA TODAY. This article was originally published on USA TODAY: “Was 2024 the hottest year on record? Data suggests it was.”
