Ukraine has indicated its willingness to consider a ceasefire, presenting a challenging decision for the Kremlin as the Russian military currently holds the advantage in the conflict. The dilemma facing Moscow is whether to agree to a truce and forego potential territorial gains, or to reject the offer and potentially disrupt the fragile progress in relations with the United States.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently opposed a temporary cessation of hostilities, arguing that it would benefit Ukraine and its Western allies by allowing them to replenish their weapons supplies. He has emphasized Moscow’s desire for a comprehensive agreement that would lead to a lasting resolution of the conflict.
In response to Ukraine’s acceptance of the U.S.-proposed ceasefire during talks in Saudi Arabia, the Kremlin has taken a cautious stance, stating that it requires more details before expressing a definitive opinion. Putin is mindful of the risks involved in outright rejecting the offer, as it could jeopardize efforts to normalize Russia-U.S. relations.
Observers believe that Putin is likely to suggest certain conditions to be attached to the ceasefire in order to safeguard Russia’s interests, instead of an outright refusal. The Russian military has maintained the upper hand in the conflict, making steady territorial gains over the past year. Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was intended to divert attention from the eastern front but has failed to halt Russian advances there.
The Russian military has targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing significant damage to power facilities. Putin has stressed the importance of not allowing Ukrainian forces to regroup and rearm during a temporary ceasefire, advocating for a long-term peace agreement instead.
Putin’s primary objectives remain unchanged since the start of the conflict: Ukraine’s non-alignment with NATO, reduction of its military capabilities, and protection of Russian language and culture within its borders. Additionally, he now seeks the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the regions occupied by Russia.
Furthermore, Russian officials have expressed the need for the unfreezing of Russian assets in the West and the removal of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU. Putin has highlighted the importance of addressing the underlying causes of the crisis to achieve a sustainable resolution.
A military buildup by the ATO near Russian borders is seen as a significant threat to Russian security. The Kremlin leader has contended that Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, lacks the legitimacy to sign a peace deal due to his expired term. Despite Kyiv’s assertion that holding elections during a war is impossible, U.S. President Donald Trump has aligned with Moscow’s perspective on the matter. Some speculate on Moscow’s potential demands, suggesting that President Putin might propose certain conditions instead of outright rejecting a proposed truce. Pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov has proposed that Moscow could consider a ceasefire if Ukraine’s allies cease arms supplies to Kyiv. The U.S. recently resumed arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a truce agreement in Saudi Arabia. Markov suggests that Russia could agree to a ceasefire with the condition of an arms embargo on Ukraine. Another desire from Moscow is for Ukraine to hold a presidential election once martial law is lifted. Markov believes that peace could enable Russia to influence Ukrainian politics and establish friendly relations through peaceful means. Foreign policy expert Alexei Naumov predicts that Russia may accept a ceasefire if it leads to elections in Ukraine, highlighting the competition between Ukraine and Russia for Donald Trump’s support to enhance their positions. Sam Greene from the Center for European Policy Analysis suggests that Putin is unlikely to outright reject a ceasefire proposal, as he has already made gains through negotiations, such as a brief halt in U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and discussions about easing sanctions. Greene emphasizes that Moscow is likely to seek concessions along the way before agreeing to a ceasefire, and the terms that Russia would prefer may differ from those favored by Ukraine and Europe, potentially aligning more with American interests. Greene concludes that Moscow believes the negotiation process will lean towards terms favorable to Russia if driven by Washington.
