“The progression of our knowledge will lead to a reduction in uncertainty,” stated the expert. “As our understanding grows, the uncertainty surrounding Earth’s potential impact with an asteroid will decrease until Earth is completely outside of the uncertainty zone, resulting in a zero probability of impact.”
Experts project that the likelihood of a collision will drop below 1% by April, primarily due to the asteroid’s orbital path moving it too far from Earth to be observable from the surface. Following this period, the asteroid designated as 2024 YR4 will remain out of sight for a duration of four years.
However, there remains a possibility that the probability of a collision may gradually increase if the asteroid’s trajectory brings it into a “close flyby” with Earth. Despite this scenario, Moissl emphasized that there is no immediate cause for concern, although global space agencies are monitoring the situation closely. With a diameter ranging between 40 to 90 meters, the asteroid has the potential to cause significant devastation, capable of decimating a medium-sized city. Should further analysis reveal the asteroid to be closer to the higher end of this size range, it could pose a threat to some of the world’s largest urban areas.
In other news, the Trump administration has terminated the employment of numerous U.S. Forest and National Park Service employees. Additionally, recent reports on DOGE transactions reveal approved expenditures rather than indications of fraudulent activity. New York Governor Hochul has committed to safeguarding congestion pricing measures following the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle them.
