A trio of tropical cyclones are currently swirling in the vast expanse of the South Pacific, a phenomenon that has caught the attention of scientists as being quite out of the ordinary. These cyclones, namely Rae, Seru, and Alfred, are all in a state of intense rotation as this region finds itself amidst the peak of a seasonal pattern that typically commences in November and concludes in April. It is worth noting that while these weather disturbances are referred to as cyclones when they arise in the Southwest Pacific, they are dubbed hurricanes when originating in the North Atlantic; however, the underlying nature of these storms remains essentially identical.
The occurrence of three concurrent cyclones in the South Pacific, though certainly remarkable, is not deemed entirely unprecedented, as explained by Brian Tang, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany. Tang remarked that the simultaneous presence of three hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the month of September is not exceedingly rare. In the South Pacific, where the current situation is quite busy with the presence of three tropical cyclones, this occurrence is noteworthy, yet not entirely without precedent. The last instance of three such storms simultaneously occurring in the South Pacific was noted in January 2021 when the cyclones Lucas, Ana, and Bina were actively churning, although the official categorization of Bina as reaching Category 1 status remains uncertain, Tang elaborated.
The geographical locations of these storms and the potential impact they may have caused are of significant interest. Cyclone Rae materialized on a Friday to the north of Fiji, unleashing fierce winds and torrential rainfall that reportedly inflicted damage upon fruit trees, according to local reports. Meanwhile, Cyclone Alfred developed in the Coral Sea on a Monday and is anticipated to bring about heavy rains and potential flooding to the northeastern region of Queensland in Australia over the upcoming weekend. As for Cyclone Seru, it attained cyclonic status on a Tuesday and is projected to track in close proximity to the island nation of Vanuatu, although it is expected to remain offshore.
The cause behind the simultaneous formation of three cyclones remains a complex and somewhat elusive concept for scientists to definitively ascertain. However, it is widely believed that the heightened activity seen during this period can be attributed to several factors. Gabriel Vecchi, a climate scientist affiliated with Princeton University, pointed towards the presence of what is referred to as a Madden–Julian Oscillation. This atmospheric fluctuation results in a concentrated area of rising air and precipitation that circumnavigates the globe and persists for a duration of 30 days or more. Vecchi suggested that this phenomenon, currently traversing over the southwest Pacific, might be contributing to an increase in cyclonic activity in the region.
In light of the inherent unpredictability and complexity of the atmosphere, Vecchi emphasized the need to entertain the possibility that certain factors beyond human prediction capabilities may have played a role in the simultaneous occurrence of these three cyclones.
