A significant weather system is expected to develop in the middle of the week, following a relatively calm and mild start to the week for much of the eastern United States. Meteorologists at AccuWeather anticipate a clash between warm, humid air and cold Arctic air, which will bring a mix of impactful weather conditions to millions of Americans.
AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham stated, “Severe thunderstorms, an ice storm, and accumulating snow are all on the horizon as a potent storm system moves eastward between Wednesday and Thursday.” This storm is likely to kick off a period of stormy weather from the Plains to the East Coast in the first half of February, potentially aligning with Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter.
As the necessary atmospheric conditions come together on Tuesday night into Wednesday over the central states, the storm will begin to form. The initial effects will include a risk of icy conditions on the colder side and thunderstorms on the warmer side. Record-breaking warmth moving into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys will fuel widespread thunderstorm activity starting on Wednesday, with some storms predicted to turn severe.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Wednesday afternoon in the Mississippi Valley region, moving towards the Ohio Valley by evening and nighttime hours, with the main threats being hail and damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. While additional thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday in the Tennessee Valley, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Simultaneously, the colder side of the storm will bring wintry precipitation in the form of snow and ice, potentially disrupting travel plans in cities such as Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis. Snowfall is expected from Montana across the US-Canadian border into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday night, with accumulations of 1-3 inches projected in areas like Bismarck and Green Bay.
Further south, the primary concern will be ice accumulation as warm and cold air masses clash. A significant ice storm is forecast to affect the Midwest to the Great Lakes region beginning on Wednesday, potentially leading to hazardous travel conditions due to freezing rain. The risk of substantial ice buildup, exceeding 0.25 inches, is highest along the I-80 and I-94 corridors in states like Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio.
Meteorologists caution that the impacts of the ice storm will extend beyond the Midwest into the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast later in the week. The threat of tree damage and power outages looms as the storm progresses. Areas in the central Appalachians through Pennsylvania and southern New York could witness significant ice accumulation, with up to half an inch of ice accretion possible.
The cities of Harrisburg, Scranton, State College, and Williamsport in Pennsylvania, as well as Binghamton in New York, are facing the threat of prolonged power outages, fallen tree limbs, and extremely difficult travel conditions due to an approaching storm. A broader region extending south and east along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, and north through Toronto, Canada, and upstate New York, is expected to experience a shorter period of icing. Major cities in the Northeast are likely to see a transition to rain as the storm continues, while areas further north may expect snow for part or most of the storm.
Cold air along the US-Canadian border will cause precipitation to primarily fall as snow in parts of the Northeast. Northern New England is anticipated to receive widespread snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with higher elevations in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine potentially seeing up to half a foot of snow. Some snow accumulation is also possible in cities like Boston and New York City.
The potential for icing poses risks for slippery travel, particularly on untreated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses, which could impact the Thursday morning commute and lead to school and business delays or closures. Following the storm, cold and gusty winds are expected on Thursday and Friday, which could result in additional hazards even after the icing threat diminishes. Temperatures are forecasted to fall near or below historical averages for early February in the Midwest and Northeast.
Strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph are predicted around the Great Lakes on Thursday, moving into the interior Northeast on Friday. Wind gusts exceeding 30 mph are also possible along the Interstate 95 corridor in the Northeast on Friday. AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters have been indicating a stormy start to February, with three potential storms expected between February 5-11, leading to travel disruptions and adverse weather conditions. Following the first storm midweek, another storm is expected from Friday through the weekend, with further storms anticipated in the following week.
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