A significant amount of rain is expected to once again impact a large portion of the south-central United States in the coming week as a storm system develops in the Southwest and moves slowly eastward over the southern Plains. AccuWeather meteorologists are warning of the potential for flash flooding in urban areas, along small streams, and flooding on multiple rivers in the region.
The widespread heavy rainfall anticipated for the upcoming week will follow recent flooding downpours from Oklahoma to parts of central, southern, and northeastern Texas, extending to the Mississippi Delta region and as far east as portions of Alabama and Georgia into the weekend. Much of the South Central states will see a break from rain this weekend, with the focus of showers and severe thunderstorms shifting to the East.
However, the situation is likely to change in the following week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop initially over drought-stricken areas of New Mexico, southeastern Colorado, and western parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas from Sunday to Monday, with a risk of flash flooding even in these dry regions.
As the storm system progresses eastward, a surge of moisture is forecast to develop from central Texas and Oklahoma, expanding eastward to Arkansas and much of Louisiana throughout the week. Depending on the influx of dry air from the west, some areas may experience prolonged periods of heavy rain.
A general 4-8 inches of rain is projected to fall, with some areas possibly receiving up to 1 foot of rain. This amount of rainfall is equivalent to one to two months’ worth of precipitation for May. The new rain could lead to further rises in water levels in streams and rivers, potentially causing flooding in areas lacking adequate protection or river mitigation measures.
Residents living near flood-prone areas along streams and rivers should closely monitor the situation, particularly in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Some of the larger rivers in the region, such as the Red River of the South, Trinity, Brazos, Canadian, Sulphur, Sabine, and Arkansas, are at risk of moderate to major flooding through the following week.
April was a particularly wet month for several locations in the South Central states, with historic rainfall and major flooding occurring in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys during the first week. The heavy rain then shifted westward, impacting the Ozarks and southern Plains for the remainder of the month.
By the time the heavy rain reaches the lower Mississippi River, the major waterway is expected to have already crested throughout its course, following the earlier surge of water from the Ohio River in early April. Plans are in place to divert excess water from the Red River to prevent flooding at the Atchafalaya River Junction.
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