During a recent discussion, Goodell and I touched upon the notable increase in gas and oil production under the Biden administration, which has not been widely publicized by the administration. This trend is expected to continue under the incoming Trump administration. Goodell, who was a fellow at the same research institution where I am a vice president, also mentioned the development of “attribution science,” a field that allows scientists to link certain extreme weather events to climate pollution. This progress in research may empower those affected by climate change to hold fossil fuel companies accountable.
Our conversation has been edited for clarity. When asked about the ongoing situation in Los Angeles, Goodell expressed that, as a fourth-generation Californian who has witnessed wildfires throughout his life, he is not surprised by the current events. He highlighted the connection between rising temperatures and the increased frequency and intensity of fires, emphasizing that as the world gets hotter, larger fires become inevitable.
Discussing the recent fires in Southern California, Goodell noted that the scale, speed, and intensity of the fires set them apart from previous incidents. He pointed out that the fires occurring in January, outside the typical fire season, are indicative of a changing climate where fire dangers persist almost year-round.
Reflecting on the recent events in Los Angeles, Goodell acknowledged that while there may be areas for improvement in response and preparedness, the extreme conditions made the disaster difficult to prevent. He emphasized the impact of factors such as high winds, dry vegetation, and urban planning on the severity of the fires, suggesting that addressing long-standing issues like building materials and CO2 levels could have influenced the outcome.
In conclusion, Goodell highlighted the need to learn from the current situation in Los Angeles and underscored the importance of considering various factors in mitigating the impact of such disasters in the future.
What we must understand is that we are ill-prepared for the climate we have created. Our world is not equipped for the climate we currently experience, and the most significant shift will involve accepting this reality. I am concerned that we will reconstruct Los Angeles in much the same way, missing the chance to reconsider its construction and invest in crucial public infrastructure such as improved water systems. It is also essential to develop a plan to discourage construction in high-risk areas. This presents an opportunity to rethink the urban landscape and its interaction with nature in Southern California. However, history suggests that change is unlikely unless we pause and consider a different approach. We must view this tragedy as an opportunity to truly understand and rebuild in a manner that recognizes the hazards of our present world.
Interviewer: In your new book, “The Heat Will Kill You First,” you start by discussing the heatwave that struck the Pacific Northwest in 2021, an area known for its moderate climate. What transpired there?
Author: The book opens with the unprecedented heatwave in the summer of 2021, where temperatures spiked in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, reaching up to 121 degrees. A “heat dome” lingered over the region for several days, resulting in these record-breaking temperatures. This event was a stark example of the extreme climate conditions arising from the continued burning of fossil fuels and the rise in CO2 levels. These climate extremes surpass even the predictions of climate models. While discussions on climate change often focus on average temperatures and thresholds like the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit, we must also consider these sudden heatwaves, intense precipitation, and severe hurricanes. My aim was to highlight these extremes and their unpredictable nature.
Interviewer: How did you become involved in reporting on climate change?
Author: My foray into climate reporting began in 2001, shortly after George W. Bush’s election. The New York Times tasked me with covering the release of the “Bush-Cheney Energy Plan,” emphasizing the shift towards fossil fuels and coal. This assignment led me to West Virginia, where I explored the resurgence of the coal industry. This experience prompted me to contemplate the consequences of widespread coal usage, eventually sparking my interest in climate change. Subsequently, I delved deeper into climate science with my book “Big Coal.”
Interviewer: Over 25 years, you have extensively covered climate change worldwide. Despite differing opinions on its causes, many individuals must witness it firsthand to acknowledge its impact.
Change is underway. How has this shift impacted how your work is received? Goodell notes a growing awareness of change among the public, citing extreme heat in Austin, Texas, as evidence. While many acknowledge the changing climate, there remains debate about the extent and causes of this shift, with some attributing it to natural variability. However, scientists have long agreed on the role of fossil fuels in driving climate change, yet misinformation campaigns by the fossil fuel industry have muddled public understanding.
Despite this, the Biden administration has overseen record gas and oil production in the U.S., seemingly at odds with the party’s stance on climate change. This leniency on fossil fuel production raises concerns about the administration’s commitment to addressing climate risks. The recent wildfires in LA underscore the urgency of transitioning away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate impacts and adapt to a changing environment.
While progress towards cleaner energy sources is evident, the pace of this transition is crucial. Biden has taken some steps towards climate change adaptation, but challenges remain in shifting away from fossil fuels quickly. The shift to renewable energy is inevitable, driven by economic factors like cost-effectiveness. In Texas, renewable energy sources have already contributed significantly to the power grid, highlighting the feasibility and benefits of this transition. The question now is not if, but how fast this transition will occur.
BERGEN: From your book, I learned about “attribution science” and its relevance to extreme weather events. Can you explain what this entails?
GOODELL: Attribution science is a significant advancement in climate science with profound political, legal, and economic implications. Think of it as a type of forensic investigation that analyzes extreme weather events, like the 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest. Researchers gather data points from the event and input them into a computer model. They then run simulations with current high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, as well as scenarios with much lower CO2 levels. By comparing the results, if the model cannot replicate the extreme weather event without the higher CO2 levels, they can conclude that the event would not have occurred or been highly unlikely without increased CO2. For example, in the case of the Pacific Northwest heat dome where hundreds died, researchers determined that the event was directly linked to elevated CO2 levels.
This breakthrough allows scientists to attribute responsibility for the increased CO2 levels to entities like ExxonMobil and Chevron, whose products contribute to climate change. This parallels the accountability issues seen in the tobacco industry. The implications extend to legal actions, with thousands of climate litigation cases worldwide examining the culpability of such companies.
Editor’s note: Subsequent analysis by UCLA scientists suggested that human-caused climate change played a significant role in fueling the intensity of the LA fires, emphasizing the impact of fossil fuel pollution.
BERGEN: Your latest book, “The Heat Will Kill You First,” has a striking title. How did you choose it and what message were you aiming to convey?
GOODELL: The title emerged from a brainstorming session to find a title that would grab attention. Initially, there were concerns that it might be too alarming for readers, but I insisted on it. I wanted the title to shift the focus from distant future scenarios to the immediate present. Climate change isn’t just about hypothetical impacts on future generations or distant wildlife; it poses real and current risks to our lives.
Despite the grim nature of the topic, I find it inspiring because of the individuals I encounter daily who are working tirelessly to address climate challenges.
There are individuals who are challenging conventional thinking when it comes to their approaches in addressing wildfires, architects who are reimagining the way we construct our environment, and scientists who are delving into the impacts of escalating greenhouse gas emissions. A diverse array of people recognize the rapidly changing nature of our world, acknowledging the precarious juncture we find ourselves in and the potential for meaningful action. It is evident that within this cohort, there exists a shared understanding of the urgent need for proactive engagement in shaping a more sustainable future.
The essence of the matter lies in grasping the magnitude and urgency of the challenges ahead, enabling a shift towards innovative solutions and a redefined societal framework. This is not a narrative of fatalism or apocalyptic inevitability; rather, it is a call to arms for those who envision a transformed reality. The visionaries among us foresee a Los Angeles, a Miami, a Phoenix, and an Austin vastly different from their current incarnations, cognizant of the transformative forces at play. The trajectory of these cities, indeed our entire world, hinges on the choices we make today – a stark dichotomy between a potentially bleak future marred by shortsightedness or a significantly improved one fueled by enlightened decision-making.
The prospect of the future is not a foregone conclusion; it is a realm of infinite possibilities where human agency holds the key to shaping outcomes. The evolution of urban landscapes, environmental resilience, and societal norms is contingent upon our collective intelligence and foresight. What Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, and Austin evolve into over the next half-century is a reflection of our capacity for strategic planning and adaptive governance. The stark reality is that our future trajectory is not predetermined; rather, it is a canvas waiting to be painted with the strokes of innovation, collaboration, and sustainable practices.
The urgency of the present moment demands a departure from business as usual, necessitating a paradigm shift in how we perceive and respond to the challenges of climate change. The repercussions of inaction are starkly evident, with the specter of worsening conditions looming large on the horizon. However, amidst this backdrop of uncertainty lies a glimmer of hope – the potential for transformative change driven by human ingenuity and resolve. The choice between a dystopian future characterized by environmental degradation and a utopian vision of a harmonious coexistence with nature rests squarely in our hands.
As we navigate the complexities of a rapidly evolving world, it becomes increasingly imperative to harness the collective wisdom and expertise of a diverse array of stakeholders. The collaboration between policymakers, scientists, innovators, and citizens is paramount in charting a course towards a sustainable and resilient future. By fostering a culture of proactive engagement and shared responsibility, we can collectively steer our cities and societies towards a more sustainable and equitable future.
In essence, the narrative of our future is not predetermined, but rather an unfolding saga shaped by the choices we make today. The transformative potential of our actions, both individually and collectively, holds the key to reimag
