A significant spring storm is anticipated to bring about a tornado outbreak in the central part of the nation on Wednesday, with the potential for multiple, long-track EF3 tornadoes, along with an unprecedented flash flood event. Up to 72 million people from northern Texas to central Michigan are at risk of severe storms, heavy rains, flash floods, and strong tornadoes in the lower Ohio Valley and the mid-South region of the United States, as per the National Weather Service.
The flash flooding marks the start of a potentially catastrophic and historic event that is expected to span multiple days, the service cautioned in its morning advisory. Severe storms are likely for the next five days, with the highest risk on Wednesday.
The storms on Wednesday could bring multiple long-track EF-3 tornadoes, wind gusts exceeding 75 mph, large hail measuring 2 inches or more in diameter, with a high-risk zone from Paducah, Kentucky, to Memphis, Tennessee. Cities like Dallas, Little Rock in Arkansas, Memphis, Nashville in Tennessee, Paducah, Louisville in Kentucky, St. Louis in Missouri, Indianapolis, Chicago, and Cincinnati are among those likely to be affected.
Areas with the greatest tornado risk include Memphis, Clarksville in Tennessee, Paducah, Louisville in Kentucky, Little Rock, Jonesboro in Arkansas, Evansville, Bloomington in Indiana, and Southhaven in Mississippi.
Tornado watches are currently in place in parts of Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, set to expire between 10 to 12 p.m. CT. Storms are expected to intensify with daytime heating and push eastward into the night.
Incidents of tornadoes and damage have already been reported. The weather service office in Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Missouri reported a confirmed tornado near Montrose, Missouri, and Owasso, Oklahoma, recorded a path of destruction from an unconfirmed tornado.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear declared a state of emergency ahead of the storms, emphasizing concerns for western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a high risk level for severe weather across portions of the mid-South on Wednesday, along with a moderate risk of excessive rainfall from the lower Ohio Valley to the mid-South.
The storm system is expected to remain stationary across the region on Thursday, potentially bringing more than 6 inches of rain from Wednesday through Thursday.
The severe weather threat persists for millions of people throughout the weekend. Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes are potential hazards in areas stretching from Texas to Ohio and into the mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding is also a high risk from Thursday through Sunday due to a stalled front. Forecasters predict the possibility of historic rainfall amounts, with up to 10 to 15 inches expected in some locations. This long-duration event will bring rounds of heavy rain over multiple days, with intense rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Flood watches are in effect for millions of people from Texarkana to Detroit on Wednesday, including a “particularly dangerous situation (PDS)” category. The weather service warns that this event’s heavy rainfall has a rare return interval of 25 to 100 years, making it a once-in-a-generation or once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. Communities are advised to prepare for severe disruptions and potential historic impacts from the extreme rainfall and flood risk.
