When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington to meet President Donald Trump later this week, the agenda will include not only warm embraces and shared laughter but also significant discussions.
Trump and Modi have cultivated a strong personal bond through high-profile meetings and joint public appearances over the years. Their relationship, which began in Washington in 2017, has been further solidified by their shared views on global affairs and politics, as well as their joint focus on countering China, a common concern that has bolstered the broader US-India partnership.
Despite Trump’s occasional criticisms of India, he has consistently refrained from criticizing Modi personally.
During Modi’s upcoming visit, the two leaders are expected to strategize on advancing the US-India partnership, which is currently on a positive trajectory.
In addition to meeting with members of Trump’s cabinet, US business leaders, and the Indian-American community, Modi may also have a discussion with Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla. Modi is keen on expanding India’s electric vehicle industry and would welcome the possibility of Musk establishing a Tesla factory in India.
While the Trump-Modi camaraderie and talks of strategic collaboration are prominent, the meeting is likely to address the practical side of the relationship, with both leaders, particularly Trump, presenting various demands.
Delhi is familiar with Trump, as many of Modi’s current cabinet members served during his previous term, coinciding with the early days of the Trump administration. Delhi has already demonstrated its willingness to make concessions, such as reducing tariffs, repatriating undocumented Indian immigrants, and purchasing American oil, in an effort to preempt specific demands from Trump and avoid potential strains in the relationship.
Trump may request further reductions in tariffs to address the US trade deficit with India, which has reached significant levels in recent years. However, this challenge could present an opportunity for Modi to propose bilateral discussions on an economic partnership agreement aimed at tariff reduction on both sides.
India has shown an increasing inclination towards trade deals in recent times, and the Trump administration might be more receptive to such negotiations compared to the Biden administration, which has imposed strict environmental and labor-related conditions on trade agreements.
Another potential request from Trump could involve repatriating more undocumented Indian immigrants, a sensitive issue given the substantial number residing in the US. India’s Foreign Minister has assured Parliament of efforts to protect the rights of Indian citizens being deported from the US.
Furthermore, Trump might urge Modi to increase India’s purchase of American oil. While India was a top destination for American oil exports in 2021, global oil markets have experienced significant shifts due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, potentially impacting future trade dynamics.
Delhi has been motivated to increase imports of affordable oil from their close partner, Russia. The decision on pricing will influence how much oil India is willing to purchase from the US.
Prime Minister Modi may also present a request for investments in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi is in the process of amending its nuclear liability law and has announced a new nuclear energy mission to attract international interest in this sector.
India’s goal is to fulfill half of its energy needs through renewable sources by 2030. Proposing nuclear energy investments to President Trump could strike a balance as it is cleaner than fossil fuels but not as common as solar and wind power, which may not appeal to the current administration as much.
The discussions may also cover technology cooperation, which has significantly contributed to the growth of bilateral relations in the Biden era. The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) implemented in 2022 is considered a crucial aspect of the strategic partnership between the two countries.
Modi is likely to seek assurances from Trump and his National Security Adviser regarding their commitment to the iCET. Given the US focus on countering China by involving India in global tech supply chains, this commitment is expected to continue.
Additionally, Modi might advocate for maintaining the H-1B visa regime to facilitate the entry of highly skilled Indian tech workers into the US, despite some criticism from influential figures close to Trump.
The conversations between Modi and Trump may also touch upon other countries, with Iran being a significant topic. Delhi is collaborating with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar city as part of its strategy to enhance connectivity with Central Asia. However, recent US sanctions on Iran could impact this project, prompting Modi to seek clarity on the situation.
The leaders may also discuss foreign policy priorities such as resolving conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Modi’s stance on these conflicts aligns with Trump’s approach, and given India’s ties with Russia and Israel, Trump might explore the possibility of Delhi playing a mediator role.
Despite the potentially sensitive discussions, both leaders aim to maintain a positive atmosphere. The Indo-Pacific Quad, involving the US, India, Japan, and Australia to counter China, could serve as a unifying factor. Trump supports this group, and Modi might invite him to attend the upcoming Quad meeting in India, which could be a trip of interest to Trump.
In an effort to strengthen his personal bond with Indian Prime Minister Modi and foster a diverse bilateral relationship that transcends mere transactional interests, Michael Kugelman, the esteemed director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute in Washington, aims to pave the way for a more enduring partnership. This strategic approach looks beyond the current focus on transactional diplomacy dominating discussions in Washington this week.
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