Brett McGurk, a CNN global affairs analyst with experience in senior national security roles across multiple presidential administrations, is currently analyzing the ongoing Israel-Iran crisis. Approaching Day 10 of the crisis, the central focus is on whether diplomatic efforts can yield a resolution, or if President Donald Trump will opt for US military intervention to target Iran’s remaining nuclear infrastructure, particularly the heavily fortified Fordow enrichment facility.
As of Saturday, following Trump’s two-week ultimatum for testing diplomacy, the situation seemed to have stabilized. Israel maintains aerial superiority over Iran, able to strike targets at will, while Iran retains the capacity to launch missile attacks on Israel, albeit in reduced numbers. Militarily, the advantage appears to favor Israel, with their position likely strengthening in the coming week.
However, this tactical situation doesn’t provide a clear strategic resolution, especially concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The direction of the crisis remains uncertain, with four potential scenarios on the horizon:
1. Diplomatic Resolution: The preferred outcome, but recent talks in Geneva between Iran and European partners showed little progress. Direct engagements between the US and Iran could offer a pathway forward, but without significant traction, the diplomatic track remains limited. A proposal presented by Trump’s envoy to Iran weeks ago remains unaddressed, offering a potential off-ramp to the crisis.
2. US Military Action on Fordow: The US is bolstering its military presence in the Middle East, signaling readiness for a potential strike on Fordow. This show of force aims to support diplomatic efforts and pressure Iran to engage. The looming deadline underscores America’s willingness to use force, potentially nudging Iran towards a negotiated settlement.
Overall, the crisis remains fluid, with the outcome hinging on diplomatic progress or potential military action.
The current strategy involves strengthening diplomatic efforts while also preparing for a potential military strike if diplomacy fails. The goal is for Iran to cease enrichment activities at the Fordow facility, whether through diplomatic means or military intervention. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested that Israel may independently dismantle Fordow, referencing a previous successful operation named “Operation Many Ways.” However, the feasibility and risks of such an operation in Iran are uncertain due to the significant distance involved and the differences between a missile facility and a nuclear enrichment site. In the absence of decisive action, the crisis is likely to persist, with Israel maintaining control over Iranian airspace and conducting targeted strikes while Iran’s missile capabilities gradually diminish. The preferred outcome remains a diplomatic resolution, but if talks continue to stall, the United States may need to emphasize the deadline for engagement and present a credible offer to Iran as a last chance for diplomacy. Additionally, considering the interconnected nature of conflicts in the region, a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza could impact the dynamics of the Iran crisis, although challenges remain in reaching a mutually acceptable resolution.
Based on my experience with Hamas, I have noticed that the group tends to show more flexibility when its allies have faced defeats. This was evident in the recent Gaza ceasefire agreement, which followed Israel’s victory over Hezbollah in Lebanon and a subsequent ceasefire in Lebanon earlier this year. With this in mind, one possible approach could involve a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza paired with a 60-day halt to enrichment activities in Iran. The goal would be to work towards more lasting solutions by the end of this two-month period. Given Israel’s current position of strength, there is a chance they may be receptive to this proposal, and the United States could assist in facilitating negotiations to help ease tensions in the broader Middle East region and prevent Iran and Hamas from regrouping.
To expedite the resolution of the crises in Gaza and Iran, one suggestion is for Hamas to release just 10 hostages, and for Iran to consider the deal proposed by Witkoff earlier this year. Given that both Iran and Hamas are currently in weakened states, there could be value in pursuing these initiatives in tandem.
While President Trump has initiated a “two-week” deadline and expressed a preference for a diplomatic solution, progress on the diplomatic front seems stagnant three days into the allotted period. Meanwhile, the US military continues to bolster its presence in the region. For the latest CNN news updates and newsletters, you can sign up for an account at CNN.com.
