A recent survey conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and YouGov in October reveals that Indian Americans are feeling increasingly optimistic about India’s future but harbor significant concerns regarding US-India relations in a potential second term under Donald Trump. The survey, known as the 2024 Indian-American Survey, delves into the political sentiments of the Indian-American community.
Against the backdrop of pivotal elections in both India and the US last year and amidst a deepening yet occasionally strained partnership between the two nations, tensions escalated following a US federal indictment of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and allegations of a Delhi-supported assassination plot on American soil.
With over five million Indian-origin residents in the US, the survey posed important questions: How do Indian Americans perceive former President Joe Biden’s management of US-India relations? Is Donald Trump viewed as a more favorable option? And how do they evaluate India’s direction post the 2024 election?
Based on a nationally representative online survey of 1,206 Indian-American adult residents, the report points out some key findings. Indian Americans generally approved of the Biden administration’s approach to US-India relations compared to Trump’s initial term. In hypothetical scenarios, a potential Kamala Harris administration was regarded as more beneficial for bilateral ties than a second term under Trump.
The political divide among Indian Americans is evident, with 66% of Indian-American Republicans believing Trump was better for US-India ties, while only 8% of Democrats concur. Conversely, half of Indian-American Democrats favor Biden, in contrast to 15% of Republicans, ultimately giving Biden the overall advantage due to the majority of Indian Americans identifying as Democrats.
During a meeting in February at the White House, Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised each other’s leadership, although Trump criticized India’s steep trade tariffs. The alleged assassination plot by India to eliminate a separatist on US soil has not been widely acknowledged, with only half of respondents aware of it.
In the ongoing conflict, Indian Americans are divided along party lines, with Democrats showing more solidarity with Palestinians and Republicans leaning towards supporting Israel. A significant portion of respondents believes that Biden has displayed a pro-Israel stance in the conflict, which stems from an attack in October 2023 by Hamas fighters from Gaza that resulted in casualties on both sides.
As talks to extend the fragile ceasefire are set to resume, the sentiments and perspectives of Indian Americans on these complex geopolitical matters continue to reflect a diverse range of opinions and concerns.
Nearly half of Indian Americans, approximately 47%, believe that India is progressing in the right direction, reflecting a 10-point increase from four years ago. This same percentage also approves of Prime Minister Modi’s performance. Additionally, 40% of respondents feel that the 2024 Indian election, in which Modi’s party did not secure a majority, has contributed to enhancing democracy in the country.
Despite the widespread support for Modi and the optimism about India’s trajectory, around half of Indian Americans are unaware of the alleged assassination attempt on US soil. This raises questions about whether there is a gap in information access, selective engagement, or a tendency to overlook certain events in favor of broader nationalist sentiments.
According to Milan Vaishnav, a co-author of the study, the reasons for this lack of awareness are likely related to selective engagement. He noted that while many Indian Americans follow Indian government and public affairs regularly, there is a significant portion that only engages sporadically, relying on a mix of news, social media, and interactions with others to form their opinions.
Despite some reservations about former President Trump, Indian Americans continue to strongly support Modi’s government in India. This divergence in opinions may be influenced by personal impact more than ideology, as majority or minority status can shape political views significantly, according to Vaishnav.
The shift in Democratic Party identification among Indian Americans has been noted, with 47% identifying as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. This trend raises questions about the nuanced understanding of political developments within both countries and whether diaspora-driven narratives and media echo chambers play a significant role in shaping opinions.
Vaishnav emphasized the diversity of political views within the Indian American community, noting that while there is a Democratic Party lean, a substantial minority, estimated at around 30% in 2024, supports the Republicans under Trump. He cautioned against generalizing from specific events or segments of the population and highlighted the importance of recognizing the range of perspectives within the diaspora.
In the digital age, information about India spreads like wildfire – through television, social media, and good old-fashioned word of mouth. Among the various platforms in the social media realm, YouTube, Facebook, and WhatsApp reign supreme as the go-to channels for staying connected to the happenings in the subcontinent.
While direct engagement with India may be somewhat limited, it is the foreign-born Indian Americans who often take the lead in maintaining ties with their ancestral homeland. This contrasts with their American-born counterparts, who may not be as actively involved in the cultural exchange.
However, it would be remiss to underestimate the enduring strength of the cultural bonds that connect Indian Americans across generations. Despite the physical distance and varying levels of engagement, the thread of shared heritage weaves a tapestry that remains unbroken.
Delving deeper into the complexities of the Indian American community, a recent survey paints a nuanced picture. It reveals a mosaic shaped by a blend of selective interactions, the ebb and flow of political currents, and the diverse personal experiences that shape individual identities within the community.
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