A wave of political change is sweeping through Germany as the hard-right nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party asserts its dominance. Labeled as “radical,” “racist,” and “anti-democratic” by its critics, the AfD has been deemed “anti-constitutional” by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. Despite these criticisms, polls indicate that the AfD is poised to become Germany’s second-largest political force following the upcoming elections.
Such a shift in power would not only impact Germany but also reverberate across Europe. The rise of the AfD is significant due to the increasing support for populist right-wing parties throughout the continent. Drawing inspiration from figures like Donald Trump, the AfD shares his “anti-woke,” strict immigration policies, and support for fossil fuels. They advocate for halting weapon exports to Ukraine and easing tensions with Russia, drawing public endorsement from the Trump administration, much to the dismay of many Germans.
Germany holds a unique position in Europe as the continent’s largest economy and a key influencer. Still haunted by its dark past, Germany, alongside the UK and France, played a pivotal role in shaping and safeguarding Europe’s liberal order post-World War II and the Cold War. The success of a hard-right party like the AfD is unprecedented in post-war Germany and is approaching a critical juncture where it could pose a threat to the Federal Republic and its liberal values.
Contrary to assumptions that Germany’s history would shield it from extremist ideologies, the current political landscape challenges this belief. The AfD’s rise has prompted a reassessment of Germany’s image, both domestically and internationally. Once admired for its economic prowess, Germany now faces scrutiny for its heavy reliance on traditional, carbon-intensive industries like combustion-engine cars and chemicals. Critics question the lack of investment in research and development, big tech, and artificial intelligence, highlighting a failure to adapt to modern challenges.
Moreover, Germany’s dependence on external powers like the US for security and China for technological advancements has left it vulnerable. As the world undergoes significant geopolitical shifts, Germany finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with its past while navigating an uncertain future shaped by the rise of right-wing forces like the AfD.
Germany is searching for alternative energy sources as buying liquid natural gas from the US and other countries is costly, putting financial pressure on many energy-intensive German businesses. This has resulted in a sluggish and stagnant economy, impacting not only Germany but also its European allies. Germany’s military has been a source of frustration among its neighbors, with Berlin playing a key role in the defense alliance, Nato. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has prompted Europeans to enhance their own defense capabilities.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised a turning point for the country’s weakened military following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Germany’s military remains in a depleted state, with reports suggesting it is less prepared for battle than three years ago, partly due to its contributions to Ukraine.
Germany has been the second-largest donor of military aid to Ukraine after the US, with most political parties in favor of continuing support for Kyiv. The AfD, however, advocates for peace and a closer relationship with Russia, calling for an end to arms shipments to Ukraine and a focus on strengthening Germany’s armed forces for domestic protection.
Infrastructure in Germany is deteriorating, with over 4,000 bridges in need of repair. Train punctuality is poor, digitization lags behind, and there are still instances of fax machine usage. Legal restrictions on spending, including a debt brake in the German constitution, have limited government investment in critical areas.
Germany’s debt brake, implemented after the financial crisis of 2008/9, has led to public distrust in politicians and concerns about economic growth. Efforts to reform the debt brake have led to political tensions, culminating in the collapse of the outgoing coalition and a snap election.
Migration is a significant issue in Germany, with the AfD capitalizing on anti-immigration sentiment. The country accepted over a million asylum seekers during the European migrant crisis in 2015/16, primarily from Syria and Afghanistan, as well as 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees. While many Germans supported a welcoming approach, incidents involving asylum seekers have reignited debates about border policies and security.
In Munich, tragedy strikes once again as another innocent child loses their life. The far-right political party AfD vehemently denies any accusations of racism or anti-migrant sentiment. According to the AfD, Germany is open to all who enter legally, find employment, contribute to society, and adhere to local customs and values.
The party advocates for the immediate deportation of immigrants who commit crimes, as well as those who enter the country illegally. This hardline stance on immigration resonated with many AfD supporters I encountered at pre-election rallies, with even young women expressing fears about their safety on the streets.
In a concerning development, a German court ruling in May determined that a significant faction of the AfD perceived individuals with migrant backgrounds as not truly German, even if they held German citizenship. The court concluded that the AfD sought to marginalize German citizens with migrant heritage, a position at odds with the principles of the German constitution.
The political landscape in Germany has shifted as centrist parties, concerned about losing support to the AfD on migration and border control issues, have begun adopting more right-leaning rhetoric. This strategic move may inadvertently bolster the AfD’s influence, regardless of the election outcome.
While projections suggest the AfD may become the second-largest party in parliament, the party’s chances of joining the next government remain slim. Germany’s post-World War Two political framework is designed to prevent any single party from monopolizing power, a safeguard against the kind of totalitarian rule witnessed during the Nazi era.
Coalition-building is a fundamental aspect of German politics, with a longstanding bipartisan commitment to keeping extremist parties out of government. Despite its claims of conservatism and libertarianism, the AfD faces criticism for its far-right ideology and growing support base across both western and eastern Germany, including among younger voters.
Entrepreneur Elon Musk made headlines across Europe by endorsing the AfD as the savior of Germany in December. However, the prevailing sentiment among the majority of Germans is that the country needs protection from the AfD’s divisive rhetoric and policies.
In the wake of yet another tragic loss of life, the debate over immigration, nationalism, and the future direction of Germany intensifies. The AfD’s uncompromising stance on these issues continues to polarize public opinion and challenge the country’s democratic values. As Germany grapples with these complex political dynamics, the specter of the AfD looms large, prompting reflection on the nation’s past and uncertainty about its future.
