The United States is potentially on the brink of a hospital bed shortage, with occupancy rates steadily increasing among an aging demographic in the post-Covid era. A recent study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Wednesday, February 19, revealed that hospitals are currently operating at 11% higher capacity compared to pre-pandemic levels. The study also highlighted a decrease in the availability of beds nationwide.
According to the JAMA report, a national hospital occupancy rate of 85% is considered to signal a shortage of hospital beds, with the potential for this alarming threshold to be reached as early as 2032 in the United States. Certain states are at even greater risk, with quicker projections towards hitting this critical level of hospital bed occupancy.
The study forecasts a surge in hospitalizations due to the aging population, estimating a rise from around 36,174,000 in 2025 to 40,177,000 in 2035 if the current bed capacity remains unchanged. The data suggests that the U.S. will reach the 85% occupancy threshold for adult beds by 2032, and for both adult and pediatric beds combined by 2035.
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, hospital beds were typically occupied at a rate of about 63%, which has now surged to approximately 75%. This substantial shift in occupancy underscores the pressing need to address the impending bed shortage crisis.
To combat this imminent challenge, researchers propose increasing the number of staffed hospital beds by 10% and reducing hospitalization rates by a similar percentage or finding a combination of solutions to counteract the anticipated surge in hospitalizations over the next decade.
The JAMA report emphasizes the importance of investigating the root causes of the potential bed shortage, with the ultimate goal of preventing excess mortality resulting from a national scarcity of hospital beds. Additionally, the authors refer to a previous study indicating that prolonged stays in emergency departments before hospital admission, particularly for elderly patients, may heighten the risks of in-hospital mortality and morbidity.
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