The recent weather system that brought heavy rain to parts of Texas and Louisiana is now moving eastward, where it is expected to stall and bring days of severe weather and a prolonged risk of flash floods lasting into early next week. The FOX Forecast Center predicts that a broad area spanning from the South to the mid-Atlantic will experience an increased threat of thunderstorms starting Thursday afternoon. These storms are expected to develop in Middle Tennessee and move eastward into northern Alabama, North Georgia, and western North Carolina, areas still recovering from Hurricane Helene. The storms will be moving along a stationary cold front over the weekend, bringing between 3-5 inches of rain from Florida through the Carolinas, with some areas possibly seeing up to a foot of rain or more.
Thursday’s severe storms could bring large hail exceeding 2 inches and severe wind gusts to cities like Knoxville, Tennessee, and Asheville, North Carolina, which are still rebuilding from the impact of Hurricane Helene last year. There is also a risk of tornadoes associated with these storms, prompting a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center for the region.
The worst flooding from this weather system has been reported in southern Louisiana, where some areas received over 8 inches of rain in just 24 hours. The stagnant weather system, caused by an unusual Omega block pattern for May, has led to prolonged warmth in some areas and consistent rain in others. The National Weather Service in New Orleans warns that the aftermath of the heavy rain could lead to moderate flooding in streams and rivers across the lower Mississippi Valley, with high water levels expected for weeks.
Computer models forecast widespread rainfall of 2-5 inches over the next five days, with some areas possibly receiving up to a foot of rain. Cities like Tallahassee, Florida; Savannah, Georgia; and Charleston, South Carolina, are expected to see the heaviest precipitation, with rainfall totals potentially nearing double digits. While the risk of flash floods remains elevated through the week and into the weekend, the current threat level is not at the highest due to many areas along the Eastern Seaboard being in drought conditions and in need of rainfall.
Forecasters are particularly concerned about heavy rain and accompanying flooding. Flash flooding is the most dangerous weather hazard in the United States, with an average of 127 fatalities reported annually, according to NOAA. National Weather Service experts warn that as little as 6 inches of swiftly moving water can sweep an adult off their feet, while just a foot of floodwater can carry away a car. The threat of damaging hail looms over North Carolina in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, with the Southeast facing an increased risk of flash floods due to heavy rainfall.
