KAMPALA, Uganda (AP) — The recent advance of Rwanda-backed rebels in eastern Congo is causing alarm among analysts, who warn that the conflict could escalate into a larger regional war involving multiple countries. Two neighboring nations heavily invested in the mineral-rich region hold the potential to play a crucial role in halting the violence.
The capture of Goma by M23 rebels and their ongoing push towards another provincial capital have triggered involvement from concerned nations in East and Southern Africa. A joint summit of regional leaders over the weekend failed to produce concrete solutions for ending the conflict, focusing instead on urging dialogue and an immediate ceasefire.
Remarkably, the summit did not demand the withdrawal of the rebels from Goma.
Following the summit, Congo released a statement expressing its support for a unified approach to achieving peace. However, there are fears that the shifting alliances in the region could lead to a collective breakdown.
Seeking Assistance from Neighboring Countries
President Felix Tshisekedi of Congo reached out to regional allies and international partners when the M23 rebels reemerged at the end of 2021. Troops from Burundi, embroiled in its own tensions with Rwanda, were deployed to support Congolese forces. Tanzanian troops, under a regional coalition, were also dispatched to Congo, with Uganda having already stationed hundreds of troops to combat a different rebel faction in the region.
Navigating these complex dynamics, Tshisekedi faced challenges akin to managing a complicated relationship, according to Murithi Mutiga, Africa director at the International Crisis Group. Mutiga noted that Rwanda, feeling excluded, decided to assert its influence, while Burundi and Uganda were seen as allies by the Congolese government.
Intensification of Conflict
The M23 rebels are viewed by Congolese authorities as a Rwandan-backed militia seeking to exploit the vast mineral resources of eastern Congo, estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. United Nations experts have gathered evidence indicating that the rebels are supported by around 4,000 Rwandan troops.
The roots of the M23 rebellion can be traced back to Rwanda’s concerns about ethnic Hutu rebels operating in lawless parts of eastern Congo. Rwandan President Paul Kagame has accused Tshisekedi of neglecting the interests of Congo’s Tutsi minority, following the genocide in Rwanda that claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands of Tutsis.
The rebels’ next objective is Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, with ambitions to advance all the way to Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, located 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) away.
Heightened Risk of Multiple Armed Groups
Eastern Congo has been plagued by conflict for decades, resulting in one of the highest death tolls since World War II. The region experienced a major upheaval in 1998 when forces from various countries, including Zimbabwe and Angola, intervened to
Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni remains determined to exert influence in eastern Congo, according to Godber Tumushabe, an analyst associated with the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies in Kampala. Tumushabe emphasized the pivotal roles of both Museveni and Rwandan President Paul Kagame in any potential efforts to quell the ongoing conflict in the region. He asserted that these leaders are unlikely to support a resolution that does not safeguard their respective interests in eastern Congo. However, underlying tensions exist between them, with Rwanda suspecting Uganda of backing yet another faction of rebels who are in opposition to Kagame’s government.
The involvement of Burundi further complicates the situation. Approximately a year ago, Burundi took drastic measures by closing border crossings with Rwanda and cutting off diplomatic relations. This move was prompted by allegations that Rwanda was providing support to rebel groups in eastern Congo that were hostile to Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye. Burundian troops had already been deployed in the region to collaborate with Congolese forces in combatting the rebels.
Ndayishimiye did not mince his words when accusing Kagame of engaging in reckless warmongering. Speaking at a diplomatic gathering in Bujumbura recently, he warned that if Rwanda persisted in territorial expansion, it could potentially encroach upon Burundi as well, thereby escalating the conflict to a regional scale. The Burundian leader’s strong stance underscored the volatile nature of the situation.
Addressing the challenges of diplomacy in this complex scenario, Mutiga from the International Crisis Group highlighted the standoff between Rwanda and Congo as a significant hurdle. Despite various peace initiatives, progress has been limited. This includes the presence of a United Nations peacekeeping mission in eastern Congo, which has faced pressure from the Congolese government to withdraw.
The conflict landscape is further complicated by the presence of mercenaries from Romania fighting on behalf of Congo, as well as troops from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) bloc. Rwandan President Kagame has alleged that the SADC troops are not peacekeepers but collaborators with the Congolese army, although evidence supporting this claim has not been provided.
Congo’s President has chosen not to engage with the M23 rebel group and opted to monitor a recent summit in Tanzania remotely, rather than attending in person. Following the summit, Congo’s government expressed support for the collective efforts to end the conflict but disputed Rwanda’s narrative regarding the resurgence of the M23 rebels. According to Congo, the crisis primarily constitutes an assault on its sovereignty and security, rejecting any ethnic dimensions that have been suggested.
The path forward in resolving the conflict remains uncertain, with the involved parties facing significant challenges in finding common ground and sustainable solutions. The intricacies of regional politics, economic interests, and historical grievances continue to shape the dynamics of the conflict, underscoring the complexity of the situation in eastern Congo.
Gaspard Maheburwa, an Associated Press writer
