A persistent pattern of heavy rainfall is expected to impact the Southeast, particularly Florida, in the coming days due to an atmospheric river. This surge of moisture may result in localized flooding, even in areas experiencing drought conditions. Thunderstorms with hail, strong winds, and heavy rain have already affected the region, extending from Texas to Virginia and the Carolinas over the past few days.
The current radar and alerts from the National Weather Service indicate ongoing thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast, with the weather pattern likely to continue through the first half of next week. While Florida and regions near the northern Gulf Coast may see some relief by Tuesday, the threat of heavy rain will gradually shift northward towards the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic by Monday, persisting into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast models suggest that areas spanning from Alabama to northern and central Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia could receive between 2 to 5 inches of rainfall through Wednesday. While South Florida may experience less overall rainfall, localized heavy rain could occur in areas where storms stall. This anticipated rainfall is beneficial for drought-affected regions, such as Florida, where occasional wildfires have occurred during the dry season. However, the prolonged period of heavy rain could also pose a risk of flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and hilly terrains like the Appalachians.
The persistent wet weather can be attributed to a slow-moving area of low pressure in the Southeast, which is being hindered by high pressure systems to the north. Additionally, the low-pressure system is tapping into an atmospheric river, a concentrated stream of moisture that can deliver substantial rainfall. Although commonly associated with storms along the Pacific coast, atmospheric rivers can impact various regions worldwide, including the eastern United States. By early next week, the atmospheric river affecting the Southeast could extend nearly 2,000 miles from Central America to the mid-Atlantic states.
These atmospheric rivers have the capacity to unleash heavy rainfall due to their immense moisture content, with estimates suggesting a moisture flux comparable to the Amazon River. This weather phenomenon highlights the complex interplay between atmospheric systems and moisture transport.
Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at weather.com with extensive experience in covering national and international weather events since 1996, is available for further insights on extreme and unusual weather occurrences. Connect with him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook for additional updates and analysis.
