A tropical rainstorm, known as Invest 93L by the National Hurricane Center, developed along the Atlantic coast of Florida on Monday afternoon, already causing tropical rainfall across central and southern regions of the state. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva warned of heavy downpours persisting in the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night, with thunderstorms carrying tropical moisture that could result in over 4 inches of rainfall.
Residents along Florida’s beaches can expect rough surf and strong rip currents until Wednesday. The main concern lies in flooding, particularly in low-lying, poorly drained, and urban areas in central Florida, as the rainstorm progresses across the peninsula.
While the abundant rain poses a risk of flooding, it may alleviate the ongoing drought in Florida, where more than half of the state is currently experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with 16% facing a moderate drought, mainly in South Florida according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Following its passage over Florida, the rainstorm is set to move over the Gulf waters and continue westward and northwestward. The intensity and path of the storm in the upcoming days will determine the extent of heavy rainfall.
AccuWeather experts anticipate a tropical depression to reach southeastern Louisiana by Thursday morning. The speed of the storm will influence the spread of tropical rainfall across the central Gulf Coast. A stationary storm over the Gulf or Louisiana could result in more widespread heavy rain and flooding.
The trajectory of the rainstorm is crucial, as a southern route over Florida would allow for more time over the Gulf to intensify before landfall. It is possible for the system to evolve into a tropical storm in this scenario, with the next name on the 2025 Atlantic Basin hurricane list being Dexter.
The rainstorm is classified as a level 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for hurricanes in the U.S., with potential impacts forecast for the central Gulf Coast as the storm is projected to strengthen into a tropical depression before reaching Louisiana.
Regardless of its classification, heavy rain and flooding risks persist. Storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected in eastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, while wind gusts of 40-60 mph may affect southeastern Louisiana if the storm intensifies into a tropical storm upon landfall.
After making landfall, the storm is forecast to move northward, bringing rain to the southern Mississippi River Valley. AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring potential tropical development along the Southeast coast in the upcoming week.
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