It’s a tense period for teams on the tournament bubble. When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, rankings were issued weekly, giving potential contenders an insight into their chances of qualifying. However, as basketball season takes over, the uncertainty returns, leaving teams unsure of their tournament prospects. Each game becomes a critical battle to keep their season alive.
While there are no official locks for the tournament until the conference tournament season begins, the recent top 16 reveal provided some clarity on the virtual locks for the big dance. Certain teams appear to be strong candidates for the NCAA men’s tournament, alongside those who secure automatic bids by winning their conference tournaments. Yet, there remains a group of teams teetering on the edge of making it to the coveted field of 68.
With Selection Sunday drawing near, let’s examine the teams on the brink of qualification for this year’s March Madness, assessing their resumes and current standing in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
Brigham Young
Record: 18-8 (9-6)
NET Ranking: 31
Quad 1 record: 4-7
Projected seed: No. 11
Key wins: Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas
Key losses: Providence
Brigham Young has been on a hot streak, winning seven of their last nine games, including a significant victory over Kansas. With a solid NET ranking and no major blemishes in league play, BYU is looking to capitalize on their momentum in an upcoming clash against Arizona to enhance their tournament chances.
Wake Forest
Record: 19-7 (11-4)
NET Ranking: 58
Quad 1 record: 2-6
Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four)
Key wins: Michigan (neutral), North Carolina, SMU
Key losses: Florida State
Wake Forest secured a crucial Quad 1 win against SMU, boosting their profile despite a lower NET ranking. The Demon Deacons need to capitalize on upcoming games against lower-ranked ACC opponents before a rematch with Duke.
Virginia Commonwealth
Record: 20-5 (10-2)
NET Ranking: 35
Quad 1 record: 1-1
Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four)
Key wins: Dayton, Saint Joseph’s
Key losses: Seton Hall (neutral), Saint Louis
With the best NET ranking among bubble teams, VCU has a solid case for making the tournament. They face George Mason in a pivotal conference matchup and must navigate a relatively easy schedule to bolster their resume.
Arkansas
Record: 15-10 (4-8)
NET Ranking: 43
Quad 1 record: 3-8
Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four)
Key wins: Michigan (neutral), Kentucky
Key losses: LSU
Arkansas has shown resilience with recent wins against top teams but faces tough challenges ahead. They need
San Diego State has faced challenges in the Mountain West this season, making their league record less impressive. Despite a bad loss to UNLV, the Aztecs have bounced back with seven wins in their last eight games. Their upcoming road game against Utah State presents a crucial opportunity to impress the committee as it is currently their final Quad 1 chance of the regular season.
Oklahoma, with a record of 16-10 (3-10) and a NET Ranking of 52, has a Quad 1 record of 4-8. They have quality wins against Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville, but a bad loss to LSU has hindered their position. The Sooners started strong with three Quad 1 wins in December but have struggled in conference play, resulting in a five-game losing streak. They now need to secure more Quad 1 wins to strengthen their resume.
North Carolina, standing at 15-11 (8-6) with a NET Ranking of 47, has only one Quad 1 win among 11 opportunities. A disappointing home loss to Stanford has added to their woes. With winnable games ahead of them, the Tar Heels must capitalize on these chances to improve their standing before facing Duke in the regular-season finale.
Xavier, at 17-10 (9-7) with a NET Ranking of 54, holds a Quad 1 record of 1-8. They have secured quality wins against Marquette and Connecticut but suffered losses to TCU and Georgetown. With an improved conference performance lately, Xavier needs to maintain their momentum as they no longer have any Quad 1 opportunities remaining. A strong showing in the Big East tournament is crucial for their NCAA tournament hopes.
Georgia, sitting at 16-10 (4-9) with a NET Ranking of 39, has a Quad 1 record of 2-10. While they have no bad losses on their resume, their inability to convert in Quad 1 matchups poses a challenge. Facing tough opponents like Auburn and Florida in the near future, the Bulldogs must secure wins to stay in contention for the NCAA tournament.
The article originally published on USA TODAY provides insights into the NCAA tournament Bubble Watch, detailing the status of teams projected to be in or out of the bracket.
